@arielepsteinUnranked
19 graded picks, first post Aug 1, 2026, latest Sep 28, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
+6.99u
19 priced picks
ROI
+36.8%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
11-8-0
Win rate 57.9%
CLV
−7.07%
95% interval −7.89% to −3.54%
Beat the fair close
6.3%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 17 | 9-8-0 | +32.6% | −7.58% | 7.1% | Unranked |
| MLB | 2 | 2-0-0 | +72.5% | −3.54% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player props | 19 | 11-8-0 | +36.8% | −7.07% | 6.3% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | C. Loveland anytime TD (+340) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +340 to a fair close of +426 | Loss | −16.32% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | D. Swift over 1.5 rec (−210) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −210 | Win | n/a | +0.48u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | D. Smith over 5.5 rec (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −104 | Win | −0.57% | +0.95u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | D. Wicks over 39.5 rec yds (−126) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −126 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | L. Burden anytime TD (+400) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +400 to a fair close of +472 | Win | −12.52% | +4.00u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | D. Wicks anytime TD (+330) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +330 to a fair close of +386 | Loss | −11.48% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | D. Smith anytime TD (+180) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +180 to a fair close of +201 | Loss | −6.97% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | D. Swift anytime TD (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +134 | Loss | −14.60% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | J. Hurts anytime TD (+165) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +165 to a fair close of +151 | Win | +5.54% | +1.65u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | S. Barkley over 11.5 rec yds (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | S. LaPorta anytime TD (+220) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +220 to a fair close of +240 | Win | −6.00% | +2.20u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | D. Kincaid anytime TD (+175) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +175 to a fair close of +209 | Win | −11.08% | +1.75u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | D. Moore anytime TD (+155) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +155 to a fair close of +172 | Loss | −6.12% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | J. Williams anytime TD (+195) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +195 to a fair close of +234 | Loss | −11.72% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | J. Allen anytime TD (−140) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −140 to a fair close of −120 | Win | −6.35% | +0.71u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | A. St. Brown anytime TD (+115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +115 to a fair close of +123 | Win | −3.80% | +1.15u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | J. Cook anytime TD (−155) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −155 to a fair close of −140 | Win | −4.09% | +0.65u |
| Thu Sep 3, 7:15 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBOS @ BAL | J. Bennett over 4.5 Ks (−140) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −140 to a fair close of −131 | Win | −2.80% | +0.71u |
| Fri Aug 21, 8:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBDET @ KC | N. Cameron under 5.5 Ks (−136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −136 to a fair close of −123 | Win | −4.28% | +0.74u |
All 19 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.