Who actually beats the close
Every capper and sport with at least 20 graded picks, ranked by the lower bound of closing-line value: the only number a capper can't fake. Picks posted Oct 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026.
| # | Capper | Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | joblessfinalboss on PolymarketValorant | Valorant | 268 | 145-123-0 | +18.1% | +6.08% (95% interval +4.38% to +7.94%) | 81.3% | Sharp |
| 2 | BreakTheBank on PolymarketSoccer | Soccer | 496 | 217-279-0 | +3.1% | +2.02% (95% interval +1.56% to +2.51%) | 70.8% | Sharp |
| 3 | BreakTheBank on PolymarketNFL | NFL | 81 | 46-35-0 | +21.7% | +1.55% (95% interval +1.03% to +2.17%) | 80.3% | Sharp |
| 4 | joblessfinalboss on PolymarketLoL | LoL | 70 | 39-31-0 | −8.0% | +3.92% (95% interval +0.75% to +8.47%) | 54.3% | Sharp |
| 5 | Soarin22 on PolymarketNBA | NBA | 723 | 409-314-0 | +13.2% | +1.13% (95% interval +0.64% to +1.57%) | 65.8% | Sharp |
| 6 | BreakTheBank on PolymarketMLB | MLB | 46 | 17-29-0 | −9.5% | +2.36% (95% interval +0.62% to +5.52%) | 82.6% | Sharp |
| 7 | primm on PolymarketNCAAF | NCAAF | 342 | 161-181-0 | 0.0% | +1.09% (95% interval +0.49% to +1.74%) | 58.5% | Sharp |
| 8 | Kch-Temp on PolymarketNFL | NFL | 42 | 29-13-0 | +47.4% | +1.05% (95% interval +0.39% to +1.72%) | 61.9% | Sharp |
| 9 | ndb1 on PolymarketNHL | NHL | 42 | 20-22-0 | −18.3% | +0.72% (95% interval +0.22% to +1.22%) | 71.4% | Sharp |
| 10 | primm on PolymarketNFL | NFL | 196 | 103-93-0 | +21.4% | +0.88% (95% interval +0.21% to +1.58%) | 52.0% | Sharp |
| 11 | BreakTheBank on PolymarketPremier League | Premier League | 30 | 10-20-0 | −37.9% | +1.33% (95% interval +0.20% to +2.57%) | 80.0% | Sharp |
| 12 | Kch-Temp on PolymarketSoccer | Soccer | 181 | 96-85-0 | −1.5% | +0.87% (95% interval +0.18% to +1.59%) | 60.2% | Sharp |
| 13 | BreakTheBank on PolymarketLa Liga | La Liga | 26 | 4-22-0 | −70.2% | +1.47% (95% interval +0.11% to +2.91%) | 65.4% | Sharp |
| 14 | ndb1 on PolymarketSoccer | Soccer | 222 | 140-82-0 | −2.5% | +0.50% (95% interval +0.08% to +0.94%) | 60.8% | Sharp |
| 15 | Soarin22 on PolymarketBasketball | Basketball | 503 | 254-249-0 | +0.6% | +0.55% (95% interval +0.05% to +1.04%) | 53.9% | Sharp |
| 16 | ndb1 on PolymarketNFL | NFL | 37 | 23-14-0 | −6.6% | +0.52% (95% interval +0.04% to +1.08%) | 62.2% | Sharp |
| 17 | Soarin22 on PolymarketMLB | MLB | 109 | 57-52-0 | +7.7% | +0.27% (95% interval −0.06% to +0.58%) | 59.6% | Not yet |
| 18 | VPenguin on PolymarketSerie A | Serie A | 22 | 7-15-0 | −23.0% | +0.56% (95% interval −0.22% to +1.42%) | 63.6% | Not yet |
| 19 | Elaran1993 on PolymarketMLB | MLB | 118 | 62-56-0 | +15.2% | +0.12% (95% interval −0.27% to +0.50%) | 63.6% | Not yet |
| 20 | Soarin22 on PolymarketNFL | NFL | 107 | 56-51-0 | −0.3% | +0.30% (95% interval −0.28% to +0.86%) | 63.5% | Not yet |
| 21 | Kch-Temp on PolymarketNCAAF | NCAAF | 35 | 18-17-0 | +3.4% | +0.66% (95% interval −0.38% to +1.74%) | 57.1% | Not yet |
| 22 | WTSA on PolymarketSoccer | Soccer | 184 | 94-90-0 | +3.7% | +0.12% (95% interval −0.42% to +0.65%) | 54.9% | Not yet |
| 23 | VPenguin on PolymarketBasketball | Basketball | 124 | 55-69-0 | −2.3% | +0.46% (95% interval −0.46% to +1.39%) | 52.4% | Not yet |
| 24 | mmklop on PolymarketCS2 | CS2 | 334 | 195-139-0 | +10.8% | +0.40% (95% interval −0.47% to +1.24%) | 62.9% | Not yet |
| 25 | SPCEXBUYER on PolymarketMLB | MLB | 47 | 18-29-0 | −17.5% | +0.06% (95% interval −0.78% to +1.14%) | 38.3% | Not yet |
| 26 | SPCEXBUYER on PolymarketValorant | Valorant | 36 | 14-22-0 | −21.3% | +2.53% (95% interval −0.79% to +5.84%) | 72.2% | Not yet |
| 27 | u/PurpleDragonBets on RedditMLB | MLB | 105 | 55-45-5 | −5.1% | +0.12% (95% interval −0.85% to +1.10%) | 45.7% | Not yet |
| 28 | VPenguin on PolymarketNBA | NBA | 78 | 41-37-0 | +13.2% | −0.04% (95% interval −0.88% to +0.77%) | 50.0% | Not yet |
| 29 | u/Panda-Picks on RedditNBA | NBA | 49 | 27-22-0 | +3.8% | +0.57% (95% interval −1.01% to +2.10%) | 46.9% | Not yet |
| 30 | SPCEXBUYER on PolymarketSoccer | Soccer | 20 | 7-13-0 | −28.1% | −0.12% (95% interval −1.09% to +0.89%) | 40.0% | Not yet |
| 31 | esportsbetter1 on PolymarketValorant | Valorant | 181 | 89-92-0 | +5.6% | +0.49% (95% interval −1.12% to +2.10%) | 58.0% | Not yet |
| 32 | BreakTheBank on PolymarketBasketball | Basketball | 39 | 14-25-0 | −29.4% | +0.08% (95% interval −1.27% to +1.23%) | 66.7% | Not yet |
| 33 | Soarin22 on PolymarketBaseball | Baseball | 23 | 15-8-0 | +22.6% | −0.45% (95% interval −1.27% to +0.29%) | 52.2% | Not yet |
| 34 | beachboy4 on PolymarketNBA | NBA | 39 | 18-21-0 | −8.5% | −0.86% (95% interval −1.39% to −0.31%) | 23.1% | Losing to the close |
| 35 | Elaran1993 on PolymarketBaseball | Baseball | 39 | 20-19-0 | −3.9% | −0.94% (95% interval −1.57% to −0.30%) | 35.9% | Losing to the close |
| 36 | BreakTheBank on PolymarketNBA | NBA | 22 | 9-13-0 | −8.1% | +0.54% (95% interval −1.59% to +2.55%) | 68.2% | Not yet |
| 37 | beachboy4 on PolymarketBasketball | Basketball | 57 | 25-32-0 | −15.8% | −0.99% (95% interval −1.63% to −0.41%) | 33.3% | Losing to the close |
| 38 | esportsbetter1 on PolymarketNFL | NFL | 21 | 14-7-0 | +27.1% | −0.78% (95% interval −1.74% to +0.08%) | 47.6% | Not yet |
| 39 | Soarin22 on PolymarketSoccer | Soccer | 29 | 15-14-0 | −9.6% | −0.31% (95% interval −1.78% to +1.46%) | 31.0% | Not yet |
| 40 | Elaran1993 on PolymarketLoL | LoL | 72 | 38-34-0 | +13.0% | +0.10% (95% interval −1.79% to +2.57%) | 52.8% | Not yet |
| 41 | ndb1 on PolymarketBasketball | Basketball | 94 | 53-41-0 | +17.9% | −0.80% (95% interval −1.85% to +0.10%) | 51.1% | Not yet |
| 42 | u/InconsolableBrat on RedditNBA | NBA | 31 | 20-11-0 | +21.2% | +1.76% (95% interval −1.85% to +5.51%) | 53.3% | Not yet |
| 43 | VPenguin on PolymarketLoL | LoL | 75 | 30-45-0 | +14.8% | −0.25% (95% interval −2.00% to +1.45%) | 57.3% | Not yet |
| 44 | beachboy4 on PolymarketSoccer | Soccer | 33 | 24-9-0 | +35.9% | −1.51% (95% interval −2.00% to −1.02%) | 24.2% | Losing to the close |
| 45 | Elaran1993 on PolymarketSoccer | Soccer | 26 | 14-12-0 | +4.4% | −1.55% (95% interval −2.47% to −0.59%) | 26.9% | Losing to the close |
| 46 | u/Timely-Conclusion532 on RedditNBA | NBA | 47 | 30-17-0 | +0.6% | −1.09% (95% interval −2.59% to +0.37%) | 36.2% | Not yet |
| 47 | @gunit_81 on XMLB | MLB | 1,053 | 515-531-7 | −6.4% | −2.15% (95% interval −2.61% to −1.69%) | 32.1% | Losing to the close |
| 48 | @justabetoutside on XMLB | MLB | 53 | 31-21-1 | +13.1% | −1.37% (95% interval −2.69% to +0.06%) | 30.2% | Not yet |
| 49 | esportsbetter1 on PolymarketNCAAF | NCAAF | 26 | 16-10-0 | +13.5% | −0.97% (95% interval −2.70% to +0.68%) | 34.6% | Not yet |
| 50 | u/NatureBoyRicFlair36 on RedditMLB | MLB | 100 | 50-50-0 | −2.9% | −1.92% (95% interval −2.73% to −1.18%) | 22.0% | Losing to the close |
| 51 | @peterappel23 on XNFL | NFL | 21 | 7-13-1 | −26.7% | −0.83% (95% interval −2.75% to +1.32%) | 46.7% | Not yet |
| 52 | @betfirmsjack on XMLB | MLB | 49 | 19-30-0 | −26.0% | −1.71% (95% interval −2.99% to −0.45%) | 34.7% | Losing to the close |
| 53 | @covers_josh on XNHL | NHL | 21 | 11-10-0 | +9.4% | +0.01% (95% interval −3.08% to +2.60%) | 47.6% | Not yet |
| 54 | u/NatureBoyRicFlair36 on RedditNCAAB | NCAAB | 113 | 64-49-0 | +8.4% | −1.69% (95% interval −3.17% to −0.13%) | 33.9% | Losing to the close |
| 55 | Wighty on YouTubeMLB | MLB | 257 | 126-130-1 | −7.4% | −2.68% (95% interval −3.20% to −2.17%) | 23.7% | Losing to the close |
| 56 | u/Maleficent-Coach4932 on RedditNCAAB | NCAAB | 20 | 14-6-0 | +23.8% | −1.51% (95% interval −3.25% to 0.00%) | 31.3% | Not yet |
| 57 | SPCEXBUYER on PolymarketCS2 | CS2 | 101 | 55-46-0 | +31.3% | −0.91% (95% interval −3.38% to +1.29%) | 57.4% | Not yet |
| 58 | u/NatureBoyRicFlair36 on RedditNHL | NHL | 116 | 51-63-2 | −9.3% | −2.81% (95% interval −3.41% to −2.21%) | 13.8% | Losing to the close |
| 59 | u/JoeInglesOfficial on RedditNFL | NFL | 23 | 10-13-0 | −12.9% | −2.17% (95% interval −3.42% to −1.26%) | 18.8% | Losing to the close |
| 60 | u/NatureBoyRicFlair36 on RedditNFL | NFL | 43 | 19-24-0 | −15.8% | −1.61% (95% interval −3.43% to +0.35%) | 39.0% | Not yet |
| 61 | SPCEXBUYER on PolymarketLoL | LoL | 48 | 24-24-0 | +11.9% | +2.19% (95% interval −3.51% to +6.89%) | 70.8% | Not yet |
| 62 | fengdubiying on PolymarketNBA | NBA | 21 | 15-6-0 | +15.4% | +0.14% (95% interval −3.54% to +4.56%) | 47.6% | Not yet |
| 63 | u/CollegebballSHARP on RedditNCAAB | NCAAB | 202 | 116-86-0 | +6.5% | −2.88% (95% interval −3.70% to −2.04%) | 22.8% | Losing to the close |
| 64 | u/NatureBoyRicFlair36 on RedditNCAAF | NCAAF | 73 | 38-35-0 | +0.7% | −2.01% (95% interval −3.79% to −0.20%) | 40.6% | Losing to the close |
| 65 | u/NatureBoyRicFlair36 on RedditNBA | NBA | 58 | 26-32-0 | −13.6% | −2.66% (95% interval −3.90% to −1.34%) | 17.2% | Losing to the close |
| 66 | u/Mr_Gooodkat on RedditMLB | MLB | 62 | 24-35-3 | −21.8% | −2.88% (95% interval −3.99% to −1.79%) | 17.7% | Losing to the close |
| 67 | u/ControlRoyal1768 on RedditNFL | NFL | 40 | 17-22-1 | −21.4% | −2.11% (95% interval −4.05% to +0.65%) | 25.9% | Not yet |
| 68 | u/BellesPicks on RedditMLB | MLB | 138 | 70-67-1 | +0.4% | −3.03% (95% interval −4.17% to −1.66%) | 23.2% | Losing to the close |
| 69 | @callingourshot on XMLB | MLB | 33 | 12-21-0 | −35.7% | −2.01% (95% interval −4.22% to +0.29%) | 33.3% | Not yet |
| 70 | @jtfoz on XNFL | NFL | 34 | 18-16-0 | −1.0% | −2.23% (95% interval −4.29% to +0.11%) | 24.2% | Not yet |
| 71 | u/KennyCash51 on RedditNCAAF | NCAAF | 221 | 111-109-1 | −3.1% | −3.94% (95% interval −4.56% to −3.31%) | 17.2% | Losing to the close |
| 72 | xabidaking on PolymarketTennis | Tennis | 60 | 41-19-0 | +22.2% | −3.40% (95% interval −4.57% to −2.16%) | 13.3% | Losing to the close |
| 73 | u/WaterFluid3708 on RedditNFL | NFL | 70 | 30-38-2 | −15.9% | −3.21% (95% interval −4.66% to −1.86%) | 25.7% | Losing to the close |
| 74 | @thepme on XNFL | NFL | 33 | 17-16-0 | −6.4% | −4.08% (95% interval −4.69% to −3.40%) | 21.9% | Losing to the close |
| 75 | fengdubiying on PolymarketLoL | LoL | 37 | 26-11-0 | +21.6% | +2.39% (95% interval −4.72% to +10.62%) | 51.3% | Not yet |
| 76 | u/Timely-Conclusion532 on RedditMLB | MLB | 151 | 91-60-0 | −1.3% | −4.33% (95% interval −4.73% to −3.91%) | 4.6% | Losing to the close |
| 77 | VPenguin on PolymarketSoccer | Soccer | 189 | 81-108-0 | +24.3% | −3.48% (95% interval −4.77% to −2.24%) | 29.1% | Losing to the close |
| 78 | @fammirantetfj on XNFL | NFL | 85 | 49-36-0 | +7.1% | −3.15% (95% interval −4.84% to −1.54%) | 19.7% | Losing to the close |
| 79 | u/KennyCash51 on RedditNCAAB | NCAAB | 343 | 179-164-0 | +2.3% | −4.19% (95% interval −4.88% to −3.51%) | 19.8% | Losing to the close |
| 80 | Wighty on YouTubeNBA | NBA | 299 | 157-141-1 | −0.5% | −4.01% (95% interval −5.03% to −3.01%) | 24.2% | Losing to the close |
| 81 | Land Your Bets on YouTubeNFL | NFL | 102 | 46-56-0 | −18.6% | −3.85% (95% interval −5.09% to −2.44%) | 15.4% | Losing to the close |
| 82 | u/Sun_H23 on RedditMLB | MLB | 33 | 14-18-1 | −17.6% | −4.04% (95% interval −5.17% to −2.94%) | 9.1% | Losing to the close |
| 83 | u/BellesPicks on RedditNFL | NFL | 37 | 17-19-1 | −10.4% | −4.36% (95% interval −5.35% to −3.31%) | 10.8% | Losing to the close |
| 84 | @sweatpantjesus on XWNBA | WNBA | 24 | 10-14-0 | −22.4% | −3.52% (95% interval −5.54% to −0.75%) | 14.3% | Losing to the close |
| 85 | Cheese Picks on YouTubeNBA | NBA | 35 | 20-15-0 | −10.8% | −2.31% (95% interval −5.55% to +1.19%) | 30.4% | Not yet |
| 86 | @coversjlo on XNFL | NFL | 42 | 21-21-0 | −3.6% | −4.06% (95% interval −5.56% to −2.92%) | 13.9% | Losing to the close |
| 87 | @holdthe_phone on XNCAAF | NCAAF | 29 | 15-13-1 | +0.3% | −3.87% (95% interval −5.58% to −2.30%) | 20.7% | Losing to the close |
| 88 | u/BellesPicks on RedditNHL | NHL | 57 | 23-33-1 | −20.4% | −4.59% (95% interval −5.62% to −3.56%) | 7.0% | Losing to the close |
| 89 | @dustinsaracini on XMLB | MLB | 37 | 15-21-1 | −23.2% | −3.22% (95% interval −5.67% to −1.24%) | 21.6% | Losing to the close |
| 90 | u/WaterFluid3708 on RedditNCAAB | NCAAB | 21 | 8-13-0 | −28.2% | −4.18% (95% interval −5.67% to −2.72%) | 9.5% | Losing to the close |
| 91 | @gunit_81 on XNFL | NFL | 69 | 39-30-0 | +8.5% | −4.66% (95% interval −5.72% to −3.68%) | 14.5% | Losing to the close |
| 92 | u/blackdogbets on RedditNFL | NFL | 34 | 13-20-1 | −20.5% | −5.05% (95% interval −5.74% to −4.26%) | 3.7% | Losing to the close |
| 93 | u/muddycleats92 on RedditNFL | NFL | 244 | 130-114-0 | +20.1% | −5.19% (95% interval −6.03% to −4.35%) | 6.7% | Losing to the close |
| 94 | @bucketjonbets on XSoccer | Soccer | 34 | 23-11-0 | +36.3% | −3.88% (95% interval −6.03% to −1.02%) | 17.6% | Losing to the close |
| 95 | @dustinsaracini on XNFL | NFL | 46 | 25-21-0 | −1.8% | −4.34% (95% interval −6.19% to −2.21%) | 14.6% | Losing to the close |
| 96 | u/SoggyDatabase2348 on RedditNCAAB | NCAAB | 25 | 13-12-0 | −6.4% | −4.09% (95% interval −6.21% to −1.95%) | 28.0% | Losing to the close |
| 97 | u/muddycleats92 on RedditNCAAF | NCAAF | 56 | 25-31-0 | −22.8% | −4.99% (95% interval −6.23% to −3.69%) | 6.8% | Losing to the close |
| 98 | u/BellesPicks on RedditNBA | NBA | 121 | 60-60-1 | −4.8% | −4.43% (95% interval −6.36% to −2.48%) | 23.1% | Losing to the close |
| 99 | @callingourshot on XNFL | NFL | 21 | 6-15-0 | −58.9% | −2.72% (95% interval −6.37% to +0.74%) | 42.9% | Not yet |
| 100 | @kyleanthonyufc on XMMA | MMA | 27 | 12-15-0 | −2.9% | −4.60% (95% interval −6.55% to −2.60%) | 29.6% | Losing to the close |
| 101 | Depressed Ginger on YouTubeNCAAF | NCAAF | 55 | 30-25-0 | +3.7% | −3.98% (95% interval −6.74% to −1.40%) | 32.7% | Losing to the close |
| 102 | u/Seventh__Place on RedditNCAAB | NCAAB | 22 | 11-11-0 | −4.7% | −3.71% (95% interval −6.74% to +0.03%) | 36.4% | Not yet |
| 103 | @holdthe_phone on XNFL | NFL | 34 | 18-15-1 | +4.6% | −5.23% (95% interval −7.03% to −3.47%) | 6.1% | Losing to the close |
| 104 | Greedo Plays on YouTubeNBA | NBA | 30 | 11-19-0 | −31.0% | −3.96% (95% interval −7.03% to +0.12%) | 20.0% | Not yet |
| 105 | u/Bet_On_Smurf85 on RedditNBA | NBA | 269 | 93-176-0 | −37.4% | −6.51% (95% interval −7.27% to −5.71%) | 5.4% | Losing to the close |
| 106 | @mc_silly3 on XWNBA | WNBA | 29 | 12-17-0 | −27.7% | −4.99% (95% interval −7.36% to −2.73%) | 20.8% | Losing to the close |
| 107 | u/Dr_Mantleray on RedditNBA | NBA | 68 | 36-32-0 | +6.6% | −4.17% (95% interval −7.47% to −0.70%) | 29.7% | Losing to the close |
| 108 | u/Timely-Conclusion532 on RedditNCAAB | NCAAB | 51 | 36-15-0 | +15.5% | −5.76% (95% interval −7.49% to −4.08%) | 15.7% | Losing to the close |
| 109 | @dangambleai on XNFL | NFL | 71 | 38-33-0 | +16.9% | −5.51% (95% interval −7.71% to −2.58%) | 15.7% | Losing to the close |
| 110 | Kch-Temp on PolymarketTennis | Tennis | 40 | 20-20-0 | +3.9% | −3.39% (95% interval −7.72% to +0.15%) | 50.0% | Not yet |
| 111 | u/Bet_On_Smurf85 on RedditMLB | MLB | 38 | 15-23-0 | −29.2% | −6.12% (95% interval −7.79% to −4.72%) | 2.8% | Losing to the close |
| 112 | Daft Previews on YouTubeWNBA | WNBA | 31 | 17-14-0 | +3.4% | −6.01% (95% interval −7.84% to −4.82%) | 7.1% | Losing to the close |
| 113 | joblessfinalboss on PolymarketCS2 | CS2 | 35 | 21-14-0 | +12.9% | +0.07% (95% interval −8.28% to +7.87%) | 57.1% | Not yet |
| 114 | @parlayscience on XNFL | NFL | 39 | 17-22-0 | −23.5% | −7.26% (95% interval −8.36% to −6.18%) | 4.2% | Losing to the close |
| 115 | @mc_silly3 on XSoccer | Soccer | 21 | 9-12-0 | −18.3% | −4.53% (95% interval −8.47% to −0.53%) | 23.8% | Losing to the close |
| 116 | @dangambleai on XWNBA | WNBA | 24 | 14-10-0 | −22.7% | −4.87% (95% interval −8.81% to −1.33%) | 16.7% | Losing to the close |
| 117 | u/RyeGuy4 on RedditNFL | NFL | 25 | 14-11-0 | +4.7% | −6.19% (95% interval −9.11% to −3.73%) | 8.7% | Losing to the close |
| 118 | @dfsndonuts on XMLB | MLB | 25 | 9-16-0 | −28.3% | −11.97% (95% interval −15.81% to −8.49%) | 0.0% | Losing to the close |
| 119 | @gneiffer07 on XMLB | MLB | 42 | 12-30-0 | +37.5% | −19.78% (95% interval −21.79% to −17.55%) | 0.0% | Losing to the close |