u/BellesPicksLosing to the close
360 graded picks, first post Sep 30, 2025, latest Sep 30, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
−20.23u
360 priced picks
ROI
−5.6%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
174-182-4
Win rate 48.9%
CLV
−3.93%
95% interval −4.76% to −3.10%
Beat the fair close
19.2%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 138 | 70-67-1 | +0.4% | −3.03% | 23.2% | Losing to the close |
| NBA | 121 | 60-60-1 | −4.8% | −4.43% | 23.1% | Losing to the close |
| NHL | 57 | 23-33-1 | −20.4% | −4.59% | 7.0% | Losing to the close |
| NFL | 37 | 17-19-1 | −10.4% | −4.36% | 10.8% | Losing to the close |
| NCAAB | 3 | 2-1-0 | +27.3% | −4.39% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| NCAAF | 3 | 2-1-0 | +26.0% | −3.45% | 33.3% | Unranked |
| WNBA | 1 | 0-1-0 | −100.0% | −16.26% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 148 | 68-77-3 | −10.8% | −2.95% | 23.0% | Losing to the close |
| Spread | 123 | 65-57-1 | +4.4% | −4.58% | 14.6% | Losing to the close |
| Moneyline | 47 | 20-27-0 | −17.6% | −4.26% | 17.0% | Losing to the close |
| Team total | 33 | 18-15-0 | +5.9% | −5.52% | 21.2% | Losing to the close |
| Player props | 9 | 3-6-0 | −37.2% | −3.77% | 22.2% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Sep 30, 2:00 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ ATL | PHI/ATL Over 7 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −105 | Push | −4.29% | 0.00u |
| Tue Sep 29, 10:10 PM ETReconstructed | NHLVAN @ EDM | EDM −1.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −115 | Loss | −2.13% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | PHI TT Over 23.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +103 | Loss | −5.89% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLKC @ MIA | KC −9.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −4.35% | +0.87u |
| Sat Sep 26, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFMISS @ FLA | MISS/FLA Over 58.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −6.52% | +0.87u |
| Fri Sep 25, 10:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAD @ SF | LAD TT Over 4.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −130 | Loss | +3.59% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 24, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAA @ SEA | SEA −1.5 (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 to a fair close of +124 | Loss | −8.33% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 23, 8:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBARI @ COL | ARI/COL Under 11 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −6.83% | +0.91u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | NYG/LAR Over 47.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +105 | Loss | −6.83% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCLE @ TB | TB −8.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +108 | Loss | −8.08% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFBUF @ PSU | PSU −40.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +109 | Win | −8.72% | +0.91u |
| Fri Sep 18, 9:39 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIN @ LAA | MIN/LAA Over 8 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −4.55% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | DET/BUF Over 54.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −4.35% | +0.87u |
| Wed Sep 16, 8:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSD @ COL | SD/COL Over 11 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +109 | Win | −8.85% | +0.91u |
| Tue Sep 15, 6:45 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ WSH | PHI/WSH Over 8 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −103 | Win | −4.96% | +0.87u |
| Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | DEN +2.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −4.35% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCHI @ CAR | CHI −3 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +107 | Win | −7.97% | +0.91u |
| Sat Sep 12, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCIN @ MIL | CIN/MIL Over 8.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −115 | Win | +4.37% | +0.95u |
| Fri Sep 11, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSEA @ ATH | SEA/ATH Over 10 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −117 | Win | +0.80% | +0.87u |
| Thu Sep 10, 7:05 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ NYY | NYY TT Over 5.5 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +125 | Win | −11.14% | +1.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | SEA −3.5 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +109 | Loss | −4.15% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 8, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ MIL | MIL −1.5 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +118 | Loss | −8.07% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 7, 9:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCIN @ LAD | CIN ML +150 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +150 to a fair close of +164 | Loss | −5.16% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 6, 4:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ SEA | ATH/SEA Over 7 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −104 | Loss | −4.74% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCLEM @ LSU | CLEM/LSU Under 50.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −122 | Loss | +4.88% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 3, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ SEA | ATH/SEA Over 7 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −123 | Win | +2.96% | +0.87u |
| Wed Sep 2, 8:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ HOU | HOU TT Over 4.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +112 | Loss | −9.89% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 1, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBDET @ MIN | DET ML −115 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +106 | Loss | −9.23% | −1.00u |
| Mon Aug 31, 8:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBAL @ COL | BAL TT Over 5.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | −2.56% | −1.00u |
| Fri Aug 28, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTEX @ MIL | MIL −1.5 (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 to a fair close of +109 | Win | −2.13% | +1.05u |
| Thu Aug 27, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIL @ NYM | MIL −1.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of +107 | Win | −11.41% | +0.83u |
| Wed Aug 26, 4:08 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCLE @ LAA | CLE −1.5 (+120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +120 to a fair close of +128 | Loss | −3.37% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 25, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPIT @ SD | SD ML −120 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −124 | Loss | +1.54% | −1.00u |
| Mon Aug 24, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIN @ ATH | MIN/ATH Over 10.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −132 | Win | +6.28% | +0.87u |
| Sun Aug 23, 1:36 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ BAL | TB ML +100 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +103 | Win | −1.45% | +1.00u |
| Sat Aug 22, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCIN @ ARI | ARI −1.5 (+120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +120 to a fair close of +120 | Loss | −0.04% | −1.00u |
| Fri Aug 21, 8:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBDET @ KC | DET ML −115 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +106 | Loss | −9.23% | −1.00u |
| Thu Aug 20, 2:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSEA @ MIL | MIL −1.5 (+160) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +160 to a fair close of +169 | Win | −3.46% | +1.60u |
| Wed Aug 19, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSF @ CLE | CLE −1.5 (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 to a fair close of +102 | Loss | +1.51% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 18, 8:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAD @ COL | LAD/COL Over 11.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of +103 | Win | −9.65% | +0.83u |
| Mon Aug 17, 8:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ CHC | CHW/CHC Over 8.5 (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 to a fair close of +109 | Win | −2.01% | +1.05u |
| Sun Aug 16, 1:38 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYY @ TOR | NYY/TOR Under 6.5 (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 to a fair close of +114 | Loss | −4.20% | −1.00u |
| Sat Aug 15, 7:15 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIL @ LAD | MIL −1.5 (+125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +125 to a fair close of +148 | Win | −9.45% | +1.25u |
| Sat Aug 15, 7:15 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIL @ LAD | MIL ML −125 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −116 | Win | −3.31% | +0.80u |
| Fri Aug 14, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ DET | DET TT Over 4.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +118 | Win | −12.42% | +0.91u |
| Thu Aug 13, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ MIN | MIN ML −105 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −1.20% | −1.00u |
| Wed Aug 12, 3:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ ATH | TB TT Over 5.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −103 | Win | −3.20% | +0.91u |
| Tue Aug 11, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ ATH | TB −1.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −114 | Win | −2.53% | +0.83u |
| Mon Aug 10, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIL @ SD | MIL ML −115 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −116 | Loss | +0.22% | −1.00u |
| Sun Aug 9, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | MLBDET @ SF | DET ML −115 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −118 | Win | +1.03% | +0.87u |
All 360 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.