u/ControlRoyal1768Losing to the close
53 graded picks, first post Oct 1, 2025, latest Sep 14, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
−12.25u
50 priced picks
ROI
−24.5%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
22-30-1
Win rate 42.3%
CLV
−3.72%
95% interval −6.15% to −1.44%
Beat the fair close
25.0%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 40 | 17-22-1 | −21.4% | −2.11% | 25.9% | Not yet |
| NCAAB | 6 | 1-5-0 | −71.2% | −6.97% | 33.3% | Unranked |
| MLB | 5 | 3-2-0 | +5.5% | −6.77% | 20.0% | Unranked |
| NCAAF | 1 | 1-0-0 | +66.2% | −8.81% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Soccer | 1 | 0-1-0 | −100.0% | −7.31% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player props | 26 | 10-16-0 | −34.8% | −3.75% | 30.8% | Losing to the close |
| Spread | 15 | 6-8-1 | −21.7% | −2.46% | 20.0% | Unranked |
| Total | 7 | 5-2-0 | +30.1% | −6.37% | 28.6% | Unranked |
| Moneyline | 4 | 0-4-0 | −100.0% | −3.68% | 25.0% | Unranked |
| Team total | 1 | 1-0-0 | +88.5% | −3.98% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | P. Mahomes under 233.5 pass yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Win | n/a | n/a |
| Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | P. Mahomes under 1.5 pass TDs (−156) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −156 to a fair close of −134 | Loss | −5.97% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | R. Rice under 59.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Win | n/a | n/a |
| Sun Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ NYG | D. Mooney under 24.5 rec yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | LAR −3.5 (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of −104 | Loss | −3.12% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | R. Stevenson over 23.5 rec yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −108 | Win | −1.63% | +0.89u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | J. Smith-Njigba under 6.5 rec (−121) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −121 to a fair close of −114 | Loss | −2.79% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | SEA −3 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −106 | Push | −5.69% | 0.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | NE/SEA Under 44.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −3.66% | +0.91u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | R. Stevenson over 3.5 rec (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +118 | Win | −3.61% | +1.10u |
| Mon May 11, 3:00 PM ETReconstructed | SoccerSpurs vs Leeds | Spurs ML −130 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −110 | Loss | −7.31% | −1.00u |
| Sun May 10, 1:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIN @ CLE | G. Williams over 6.5 Ks (−138) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −138 to a fair close of +106 | Loss | −16.09% | −1.00u |
| Sat May 9, 4:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ BAL | ATH/BAL F5 Under 5.5 (−140) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −140 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −11.44% | +0.71u |
| Fri May 8, 7:08 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAA @ TOR | LAA/TOR F5 Under 4.5 (−145) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −145 to a fair close of −150 | Win | +1.39% | +0.69u |
| Mon May 4, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTOR @ TB | TOR/TB Under 8 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +102 | Win | −7.41% | +0.87u |
| Sat Feb 7, 6:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABHALL @ CREI | HALL +3.5 (−137) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −137 to a fair close of −122 | Win | −4.77% | +0.73u |
| Sun Feb 1, 3:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABTULN @ MEM | MEM −9.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +109 | Loss | −9.31% | −1.00u |
| Thu Jan 29, 11:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABHAW @ UCI | HAW/UCI Under 138.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +173 | Loss | −30.65% | −1.00u |
| Sat Jan 17, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ SEA | K. Walker over 55.5 rush yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 | Win | n/a | +0.89u |
| Sun Jan 11, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ JAX | JAX ML −115 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −118 | Loss | +1.22% | −1.00u |
| Sat Jan 10, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ CHI | CHI +1.5 (−106) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −106 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −5.17% | +0.94u |
| Fri Jan 9, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFORE @ IU | IU −2.5 (−151) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −151 to a fair close of −122 | Win | −8.81% | +0.66u |
| Mon Dec 29, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ ATL | B. Corum anytime TD (+180) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +180 to a fair close of +166 | Loss | +5.08% | −1.00u |
| Sat Dec 27, 4:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLHOU @ LAC | HOU +1.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −2.33% | +0.91u |
| Sat Dec 27, 4:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLHOU @ LAC | J. Herbert under 211.5 pass yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +106 | Loss | −8.75% | −1.00u |
| Thu Dec 25, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | KC +14.5 (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −120 | Win | −3.47% | +0.77u |
| Mon Dec 22, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ IND | G. Kittle over 66.5 rec yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +102 | Win | −7.01% | +0.88u |
| Thu Dec 18, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ SEA | C. Parkinson anytime TD (+200) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +200 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Fri Dec 12, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABTEX @ CONN | CONN −13.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +106 | Loss | −7.24% | −1.00u |
| Sun Dec 7, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ MIN | WSH ML −120 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −8.33% | −1.00u |
| Tue Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABTENN @ SYR | TENN −6.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −124 | Loss | +5.67% | −1.00u |
| Mon Dec 1, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ NE | NYG +7.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | −2.30% | −1.00u |
| Sun Nov 30, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ PIT | BUF/PIT Under 47.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of −152 | Win | +16.04% | +0.93u |
| Fri Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCHI @ PHI | PHI TT Under 26.5 (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of −104 | Win | −3.98% | +0.89u |
| Thu Nov 27, 4:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLKC @ DAL | KC/DAL Under 52.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +109 | Loss | −8.83% | −1.00u |
| Mon Nov 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ LV | A. Jeanty over 84.5 rush+rec yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Nov 16, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ PHI | D. Smith over 55.5 rec yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Nov 16, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCIN @ PIT | J. Warren over 100.5 rush+rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Sun Nov 16, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCIN @ PIT | J. Warren over 79.5 rush yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Thu Nov 6, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLV @ DEN | LV +10.5 (−136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −136 to a fair close of −131 | Win | −1.68% | +0.74u |
| Wed Nov 5, 9:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABNDSU @ UCD | NDSU +3.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −130 | Loss | +4.46% | −1.00u |
| Sun Nov 2, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLKC @ BUF | J. Allen over 7.5 rush att (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −141 | Loss | +1.80% | −1.00u |
| Fri Oct 31, 8:01 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAD @ TOR | TOR ML +128 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +128 to a fair close of +129 | Loss | −0.30% | −1.00u |
| Thu Oct 30, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ MIA | J. Waddle over 63.5 rec yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 | Win | n/a | +0.89u |
| Sun Oct 26, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLTEN @ IND | J. Taylor under 20.5 rush att (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −119 | Win | +2.10% | +0.88u |
| Sun Oct 19, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ SF | C. McCaffrey anytime TD (−160) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −160 | Win | n/a | +0.63u |
| Thu Oct 16, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPIT @ CIN | D. Sample anytime TD (+900) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +900 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Thu Oct 16, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPIT @ CIN | J. Warren over 69.5 rush+rec yds (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 | Win | n/a | +0.85u |
| Sun Oct 12, 1:01 PM ETReconstructed | NFLARI @ IND | IND −7 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −138 | Loss | +13.06% | −1.00u |
| Thu Oct 9, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ NYG | T. Johnson over 3.5 rec (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | +0.93% | −1.00u |
All 53 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.