@dfsndonutsLosing to the close
39 graded picks, first post Oct 1, 2025, latest Sep 26, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
−10.12u
39 priced picks
ROI
−26.0%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
17-22-0
Win rate 43.6%
CLV
−11.33%
95% interval −14.74% to −8.25%
Beat the fair close
0.0%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 25 | 9-16-0 | −28.3% | −11.97% | 0.0% | Losing to the close |
| NFL | 14 | 8-6-0 | −21.8% | −7.86% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player props | 34 | 15-19-0 | −25.9% | −12.89% | 0.0% | Losing to the close |
| Moneyline | 3 | 1-2-0 | −28.0% | −4.92% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Spread | 1 | 1-0-0 | +53.2% | −6.28% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Total | 1 | 0-1-0 | −100.0% | −2.87% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 26, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ PHI | K. Schwarber over 0.5 HR (+310) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +310 to a fair close of +451 | Loss | −25.57% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ GB | T. Kraft anytime TD (+188) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +188 to a fair close of +237 | Loss | −14.49% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ GB | B. Robinson anytime TD (−145) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −145 to a fair close of −127 | Win | −5.45% | +0.69u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | D. Adams over 2.5 rec (−460) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −460 | Win | n/a | +0.22u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | M. Stafford over 1.5 pass TDs (−210) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −210 to a fair close of −165 | Win | −7.99% | +0.48u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | T. Kelce over 2.5 rec (−400) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −400 | Win | n/a | +0.25u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | K. Allen over 2.5 rec (−320) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −320 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | J. Taylor over 1.5 rec (−425) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −425 | Win | n/a | +0.24u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ ARI | T. McBride over 49.5 rec yds (−212) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −212 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ SF | C. McCaffrey over 3.5 rec (−300) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −300 | Win | n/a | +0.33u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ DAL | D. Prescott over 224.5 pass yds (−334) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −334 | Win | n/a | +0.30u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ ARI | J. Brissett over 199.5 pass yds (−186) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −186 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLJAX @ DEN | J. Meyers over 2.5 rec (−330) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −330 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPIT @ NE | D. Maye over 199.5 pass yds (−225) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −225 | Win | n/a | +0.44u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPIT @ NE | A. Rodgers over 0.5 pass TDs (−245) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −245 to a fair close of −218 | Loss | −3.49% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 8:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSEA @ COL | R. Arozarena over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−220) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −220 | Win | n/a | +0.45u |
| Sat Sep 19, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYY @ ARI | C. Bellinger over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−131) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −131 to a fair close of −118 | Loss | −4.48% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBKC @ PIT | C. Jensen over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +104 | Win | −8.19% | +0.87u |
| Sat Sep 19, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ CIN | A. Bregman over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−142) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −142 to a fair close of −135 | Loss | −2.06% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 4:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBOS @ TB | T. Story over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +117 to a fair close of +145 | Loss | −11.50% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 6, 6:20 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIN @ CHW | C. Montgomery over 0.5 HR (+302) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +302 to a fair close of +391 | Loss | −18.06% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 6, 3:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSTL @ COL | J. Baez over 0.5 HR (+300) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +300 to a fair close of +391 | Loss | −18.47% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 6, 1:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATL @ PHI | M. Harris II over 0.5 HR (+437) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +437 to a fair close of +518 | Loss | −13.06% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 2, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSF @ PIT | PIT ML −152 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −152 to a fair close of −146 | Loss | −1.64% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 2, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTOR @ CLE | CLE ML +110 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +120 | Loss | −4.37% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 2, 4:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSEA @ BOS | SEA +1.5 (−188) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −188 to a fair close of −158 | Win | −6.28% | +0.53u |
| Wed Sep 2, 4:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSEA @ BOS | SEA ML +116 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +116 to a fair close of +137 | Win | −8.77% | +1.16u |
| Fri Aug 28, 8:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPIT @ STL | N. Gonzales over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−140) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −140 to a fair close of −107 | Loss | −11.22% | −1.00u |
| Fri Aug 28, 8:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ MIN | L. Keaschall over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −115 | Win | −5.47% | +0.77u |
| Fri Aug 28, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ ATL | D. Baldwin over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−185) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −185 | Win | n/a | +0.54u |
| Fri Aug 28, 6:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIA @ WSH | H. Hernandez over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−132) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −132 to a fair close of −127 | Win | −1.81% | +0.76u |
| Fri Aug 28, 2:21 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCIN @ CHC | P. Crow-Armstrong over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−183) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −183 | Win | n/a | +0.55u |
| Sun Aug 23, 4:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIN @ SD | J. Merrill over 0.5 HR (+330) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +330 to a fair close of +473 | Win | −24.92% | +3.30u |
| Sun Aug 23, 3:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCLE @ COL | J. Adell over 0.5 HR (+265) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +265 to a fair close of +344 | Loss | −17.86% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 4, 8:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAD @ CHC | S. Ohtani over 0.5 HR (+230) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +230 to a fair close of +251 | Loss | −5.95% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 4, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIN @ KC | MIN/KC Under 9.5 (−124) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −124 to a fair close of −116 | Loss | −2.87% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 4, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIA @ ATL | G. Conine over 0.5 HR (+525) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +525 to a fair close of +845 | Loss | −33.86% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 4, 6:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBWSH @ PHI | B. Harper over 0.5 HR (+264) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +264 to a fair close of +335 | Loss | −16.37% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 4, 6:36 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAA @ BAL | P. Alonso over 0.5 HR (+300) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +300 to a fair close of +403 | Loss | −20.48% | −1.00u |
All 39 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.