X · 7 graded picks

@estenjmclarenUnranked

First post Aug 5, 2026, latest Oct 8, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.

@estenjmclaren (opens in a new tab)

Net units (1u flat)

−0.02u

7 priced picks

ROI

−0.2%

Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks

Record

3-3-1

Win rate 50.0%

CLV

−2.86%

95% interval −5.44% to −0.52%

Beat fair close

14.3%

Share of priced picks that beat the fair close

Open picks are for members

Records are free. Members see today's board: every pick, how many cappers are on it, and who.

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Cumulative units (1u flat)

Now −0.02u, peak +1.98u

Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.

By sport

By sport
Sport	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
NCAAF	6	3-2-1	+16.4%	−2.50%	16.7%	Unranked
NHL	1	0-1-0	−100.0%	−5.05%	0.0%	Unranked

By market

By market
Market	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
Spread	3	1-1-1	−3.3%	−3.88%	0.0%	Unranked
Total	3	1-2-0	−35.2%	−3.70%	0.0%	Unranked
Moneyline	1	1-0-0	+114.0%	+2.68%	100.0%	Unranked

Graded picks

7 graded, newest game first. Each links to the original public post.

@estenjmclaren: graded picks
Game (ET)	Sport	Pick	Taken, fair close	Result	CLV	Units
Oct 8, 10:10 PM ETLive	NHL	VGK −1.5 (+149) (original post, opens in a new tab)NHL · TOR @ VGK	+149 to a fair close of +162	Loss	−5.05%	−1.00u
Sep 4, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed	NCAAF	MSU −10 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab)NCAAF · TOL @ MSU	−112 to a fair close of +101	Push	−6.03%	0.00u
Sep 4, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed	NCAAF	INST/PUR Under 55.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab)NCAAF · INST @ PUR	−105 to a fair close of +105	Loss	−4.65%	−1.00u
Sep 4, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed	NCAAF	SJSU ML +114 (original post, opens in a new tab)NCAAF · SJSU @ EMU	+114 to a fair close of +108	Win	+2.68%	+1.14u
Sep 3, 9:00 PM ETReconstructed	NCAAF	UTAH −36.5 (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab)NCAAF · IDHO @ UTAH	−111 to a fair close of −110	Win	−0.54%	+0.90u
Sep 3, 9:00 PM ETReconstructed	NCAAF	IDHO/UTAH Over 59.5 (−106) (original post, opens in a new tab)NCAAF · IDHO @ UTAH	−106 to a fair close of −104	Win	−1.03%	+0.94u
Sep 3, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed	NCAAF	AKR/WAKE Under 50.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)NCAAF · AKR @ WAKE	−110 to a fair close of +102	Loss	−5.43%	−1.00u

1 pick was tracked live; 6 were reconstructed from the original public posts, at the time and price they were posted. Each row is labeled. Only picks on games that have started are listed. See the methodology.

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