@holdthe_phoneLosing to the close
63 graded picks, first post Oct 1, 2025, latest Sep 29, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
+1.66u
63 priced picks
ROI
+2.6%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
33-28-2
Win rate 54.1%
CLV
−4.59%
95% interval −5.85% to −3.35%
Beat the fair close
12.9%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 34 | 18-15-1 | +4.6% | −5.23% | 6.1% | Losing to the close |
| NCAAF | 29 | 15-13-1 | +0.3% | −3.87% | 20.7% | Losing to the close |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 47 | 24-21-2 | +0.8% | −3.95% | 14.9% | Losing to the close |
| Moneyline | 10 | 7-3-0 | +25.7% | −6.13% | 10.0% | Unranked |
| Player props | 3 | 1-2-0 | −5.0% | −7.27% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Total | 3 | 1-2-0 | −38.4% | −7.85% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLKC @ LV | KC −4.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −113 | Loss | +0.21% | −1.00u |
| Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ BUF | NE +6.5 (−104) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −104 to a fair close of +110 | Win | −6.69% | +0.96u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:18 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | Z. Ertz anytime TD (+575) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +575 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | PHI −4 (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of +117 | Loss | −12.95% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLHOU @ IND | IND +3 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −147 | Win | +10.10% | +0.85u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCIN @ PIT | CIN ML −182 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −182 to a fair close of −152 | Loss | −6.66% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYJ @ DET | G. Wilson anytime TD (+185) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +185 to a fair close of +200 | Win | −4.99% | +1.85u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYJ @ DET | DET −6.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −108 | Win | −2.74% | +0.87u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCIN @ PIT | PIT +3.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −108 | Win | −3.05% | +0.87u |
| Sat Sep 26, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFORE @ USC | ORE ML −170 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −170 to a fair close of −177 | Win | +1.39% | +0.59u |
| Sat Sep 26, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFORE @ USC | ORE −3 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −126 | Win | +3.04% | +0.85u |
| Sat Sep 26, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFTA&M @ LSU | TA&M +9.5 (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −107 | Loss | −6.83% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 26, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFMISS @ FLA | FLA −3.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −0.27% | +0.93u |
| Sat Sep 26, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFIOWA @ MICH | MICH −5.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of +104 | Loss | −5.54% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 26, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFTEX @ TENN | TENN +5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +104 | Win | −6.56% | +0.91u |
| Fri Sep 25, 10:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCLEM @ CAL | CAL ML +110 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +128 | Loss | −7.76% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | NYG +7.5 (−136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −136 to a fair close of −126 | Loss | −3.37% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | P. Mahomes anytime TD (+325) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +325 to a fair close of +370 | Loss | −9.54% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | KC ML −285 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −285 to a fair close of −245 | Win | −4.06% | +0.35u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | KC −6 (−107) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −107 to a fair close of +107 | Loss | −6.74% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ DAL | WSH +4 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of −101 | Loss | −3.67% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ DAL | WSH +3.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +110 | Loss | −6.92% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLJAX @ DEN | DEN −2.5 (−119) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −119 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −5.77% | +0.84u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLV @ LAC | LAC −6.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −5.62% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLV @ LAC | LV ML +255 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +255 to a fair close of +276 | Win | −5.47% | +2.55u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCIN @ HOU | HOU −2 (−129) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −129 to a fair close of −117 | Loss | −4.46% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFLSU @ MISS | MISS +3 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of −104 | Win | −2.47% | +0.92u |
| Sat Sep 19, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFFLA @ AUB | AUB +2 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of +101 | Loss | −4.79% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUSC @ RUTG | RUTG +23 (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −116 | Win | −3.41% | +0.80u |
| Sat Sep 19, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFSMU @ LOU | SMU +1.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +118 | Loss | −12.61% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUNC @ CLEM | UNC +3.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −122 | Loss | +0.57% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 18, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFHOU @ TTU | TTU −7.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −3.63% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 18, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFMIA @ WAKE | WAKE +20.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −4.55% | +0.91u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | BUF −5.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +104 | Win | −4.42% | +0.95u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | BUF −4.5 (−127) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −127 to a fair close of −104 | Win | −8.70% | +0.79u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | BUF ML −240 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −240 to a fair close of −227 | Win | −1.72% | +0.42u |
| Sun Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ NYG | NYG +3 (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −7.24% | +0.90u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ MIN | GB +1.5 (−103) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −103 to a fair close of +105 | Loss | −3.74% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYJ @ TEN | TEN ML −118 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −106 | Loss | −4.75% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ HOU | BUF ML −119 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −119 to a fair close of −103 | Win | −6.65% | +0.84u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ IND | BAL −3 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +111 | Win | −9.73% | +0.91u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLTB @ CIN | CIN ML −203 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −203 to a fair close of −184 | Win | −3.38% | +0.49u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ IND | BAL ML −300 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −300 to a fair close of −140 | Win | −22.26% | +0.33u |
| Sat Sep 12, 10:15 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFARK @ UTAH | UTAH −12.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −4.76% | +0.91u |
| Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFOSU @ TEX | TEX −2 (−107) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −107 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −2.35% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFALA @ UK | UK +10.5 (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −128 | Loss | +2.21% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFPSU @ TEM | PSU −23.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −110 | Loss | −3.88% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFOU @ MICH | MICH +5.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −4.48% | +0.89u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | SF/LAR Under 48.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −116 | Win | −0.79% | +0.85u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | LAR −3.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −104 | Loss | −0.50% | −1.00u |
All 63 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.