u/JoeInglesOfficialLosing to the close
36 graded picks, first post Oct 1, 2025, latest Sep 19, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
−8.26u
32 priced picks
ROI
−25.8%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
13-23-0
Win rate 36.1%
CLV
−3.72%
95% interval −6.79% to −1.49%
Beat the fair close
18.5%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 23 | 10-13-0 | −12.9% | −2.17% | 18.8% | Losing to the close |
| NCAAF | 9 | 2-7-0 | −48.9% | −5.03% | 14.3% | Unranked |
| NBA | 3 | 1-2-0 | −37.4% | −5.72% | 33.3% | Unranked |
| NCAAB | 1 | 0-1-0 | −100.0% | −13.38% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player props | 28 | 10-18-0 | −21.0% | −2.86% | 21.1% | Not yet |
| Spread | 3 | 0-3-0 | −100.0% | −12.03% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Team total | 3 | 2-1-0 | +19.1% | −4.45% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Moneyline | 1 | 1-0-0 | +21.2% | −4.93% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Total | 1 | 0-1-0 | −100.0% | +8.14% | 100.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 19, 11:59 AM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUGA @ ARK | UGA TT Over 38.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −5.43% | +0.83u |
| Thu Sep 3, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCOLO @ GT | COLO/GT Over 50.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −137 | Loss | +8.14% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 3, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCOLO @ GT | D. Scudero over 50.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Thu Sep 3, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCOLO @ GT | M. Hosley over 40.5 rush yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Thu Sep 3, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCOLO @ GT | J. Haynes over 80.5 rush yds (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −7.26% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 3, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCOLO @ GT | GT −6.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +101 | Loss | −6.97% | −1.00u |
| Thu Apr 30, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBANY @ ATL | O. Anunoby over 7.5 reb (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +158 | Loss | −18.55% | −1.00u |
| Thu Apr 30, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBANY @ ATL | J. Clarkson over 6.5 pts (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +108 | Win | −9.95% | +0.88u |
| Mon Feb 2, 10:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPHI @ LAC | I. Zubac over 10.5 reb (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −140 | Loss | +11.36% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CHI | D. Adams over 57.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Sun Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CHI | D. Adams anytime TD (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −108 | Loss | −3.05% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CHI | D. Adams over 55.5 rec yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −4.55% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CHI | M. Stafford over 1.5 pass TDs (−210) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −210 to a fair close of −202 | Loss | −1.24% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CHI | M. Stafford over 263.5 pass yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +101 | Loss | −4.87% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CHI | C. Williams over 212.5 pass yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 | Win | n/a | +0.91u |
| Sun Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CHI | L. Burden over 2.5 rec (−150) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −150 to a fair close of −156 | Win | +1.61% | +0.67u |
| Sun Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CHI | L. Burden over 37.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Thu Dec 25, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | C. Sutton anytime TD (+150) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +150 to a fair close of +162 | Loss | −4.52% | −1.00u |
| Thu Dec 25, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | C. Sutton over 61.5 rec yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −5.65% | −1.00u |
| Thu Dec 25, 4:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ MIN | A. St. Brown anytime TD (+120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +120 to a fair close of +114 | Loss | +2.65% | −1.00u |
| Thu Dec 25, 4:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ MIN | A. St. Brown over 74.5 rec yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −104 | Loss | −4.79% | −1.00u |
| Thu Dec 25, 4:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ MIN | A. St. Brown over 6.5 rec (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −104 | Win | −0.57% | +0.95u |
| Thu Dec 25, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ WSH | DAL ML −472 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −472 to a fair close of −364 | Win | −4.93% | +0.21u |
| Thu Dec 25, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ WSH | D. Samuel over 41.5 rec yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 | Win | n/a | +0.91u |
| Thu Dec 25, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ WSH | D. Prescott over 1.5 pass TDs (−210) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −210 to a fair close of −197 | Win | −2.10% | +0.48u |
| Thu Dec 25, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ WSH | C. Lamb anytime TD (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +114 | Loss | −1.76% | −1.00u |
| Thu Dec 25, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ WSH | C. Lamb over 5.5 rec (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −142 | Loss | +3.92% | −1.00u |
| Thu Dec 4, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ DET | J. Williams over 5.5 rec (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 | Win | n/a | +1.05u |
| Sat Nov 29, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFALA @ AUB | AUB TT Over 20.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +101 | Loss | −2.92% | −1.00u |
| Sat Nov 29, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFALA @ AUB | AUB TT Over 19.5 (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −120 | Win | −5.00% | +0.74u |
| Wed Nov 19, 9:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABALA @ ILL | ILL −3.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +120 | Loss | −13.38% | −1.00u |
| Mon Nov 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ LV | G. Pickens anytime TD (+150) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +150 to a fair close of +155 | Win | −2.03% | +1.50u |
| Mon Nov 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ LV | G. Pickens over 4.5 rec (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −126 | Win | −2.94% | +0.74u |
| Mon Nov 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ LV | G. Pickens over 64.5 rec yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 | Win | n/a | +0.88u |
| Sat Nov 8, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFORE @ IOWA | ORE −6.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +132 | Loss | −15.74% | −1.00u |
| Thu Oct 2, 8:16 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | B. Corum over 28.5 rush yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
All 36 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.