@jtfozLosing to the close
66 graded picks, first post Aug 2, 2026, latest Oct 1, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
+10.10u
66 priced picks
ROI
+15.3%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
40-26-0
Win rate 60.6%
CLV
−3.09%
95% interval −4.57% to −1.61%
Beat the fair close
24.6%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 34 | 18-16-0 | −1.0% | −2.23% | 24.2% | Not yet |
| NCAAF | 17 | 13-4-0 | +45.9% | −5.59% | 11.8% | Unranked |
| MLB | 15 | 9-6-0 | +17.5% | −2.14% | 40.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 26 | 15-11-0 | +9.6% | −3.78% | 19.2% | Losing to the close |
| Total | 26 | 19-7-0 | +38.0% | −2.08% | 26.9% | Not yet |
| Player props | 6 | 3-3-0 | −5.1% | −5.73% | 20.0% | Unranked |
| Moneyline | 4 | 1-3-0 | −38.8% | −0.47% | 50.0% | Unranked |
| Team total | 4 | 2-2-0 | −9.9% | −4.47% | 25.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ CAR | DET/CAR Over 49.5 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of −143 | Win | +12.98% | +0.92u |
| Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLJAX @ CIN | JAX/CIN Over 49.5 (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of −139 | Loss | +10.67% | −1.00u |
| Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPIT @ CLE | PIT −2.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −110 | Loss | −4.07% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 30, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBOS @ NYY | BOS/NYY Over 6.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −112 | Win | −2.20% | +0.85u |
| Tue Sep 29, 10:00 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ SD | CHC/SD Over 7.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −101 | Win | −6.08% | +0.87u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | CHI +4.5 (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −125 | Win | −0.13% | +0.80u |
| Sun Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ DAL | BAL TT Over 27.5 (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −126 | Win | −2.91% | +0.74u |
| Sun Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ DAL | BAL/DAL Over 51.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −140 | Win | +10.54% | +0.89u |
| Sun Sep 27, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIN @ TB | MIN −1.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +107 | Win | −5.77% | +0.95u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLHOU @ IND | D. Montgomery over 9.5 rec yds (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of +102 | Win | −5.84% | +0.90u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ WSH | SEA −7.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −4.35% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYJ @ DET | NYJ/DET Over 47.5 (−145) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −145 to a fair close of −144 | Win | −0.30% | +0.69u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLHOU @ IND | D. Montgomery over 8.5 rec yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +104 | Win | −6.24% | +0.91u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCAR @ CLE | CAR −2.5 (−106) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −106 to a fair close of +104 | Loss | −4.63% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAC @ BUF | BUF TT Over 28.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −101 | Loss | −7.90% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAC @ BUF | LAC/BUF Over 50.5 (−107) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −107 to a fair close of +103 | Loss | −4.62% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCIN @ PIT | CIN −3.5 (−106) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −106 to a fair close of +108 | Loss | −6.44% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ JAX | JAX −2.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −122 | Win | +2.78% | +0.87u |
| Sat Sep 26, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFORE @ USC | ORE/USC Over 61.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +114 | Win | −11.45% | +0.89u |
| Sat Sep 26, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFSC @ ALA | SC/ALA Over 54.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +111 | Win | −7.58% | +0.95u |
| Sat Sep 26, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFOU @ UGA | UGA −13.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +107 | Win | −7.63% | +0.91u |
| Sat Sep 26, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFTEX @ TENN | TEX/TENN Under 55.5 (−126) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −126 to a fair close of −114 | Win | −4.54% | +0.79u |
| Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ GB | ATL/GB Under 44.5 (−142) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −142 to a fair close of −134 | Loss | −2.48% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ GB | GB −6.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +131 | Loss | −18.97% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 23, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCIN @ ATL | ATL −1.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | +2.03% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | LAR −6.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −2.30% | +0.87u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | K. Williams over 14.5 rec yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | IND/KC Under 46.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −108 | Loss | −1.00% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ ARI | SEA −3.5 (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 to a fair close of −110 | Win | −2.96% | +0.85u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ DAL | WSH/DAL Over 50.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −3.51% | +0.87u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPIT @ NE | PIT +5.5 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of −111 | Loss | +1.08% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCAR @ ATL | CAR +1.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −140 | Win | +11.49% | +0.91u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ NYJ | GB −3.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +106 | Loss | −5.08% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUTEP @ MICH | UTEP/MICH Under 48.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −106 | Loss | −1.63% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFFSU @ ALA | ALA TT Over 34.5 (−116) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −116 to a fair close of −117 | Win | +0.38% | +0.86u |
| Sat Sep 19, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFKENT @ OSU | OSU −52.5 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −6.35% | +0.92u |
| Sat Sep 19, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUNC @ CLEM | CLEM −3 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +102 | Win | −7.41% | +0.87u |
| Fri Sep 18, 8:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTOR @ TEX | TOR −1.5 (+127) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +127 to a fair close of +136 | Loss | −3.93% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | J. Allen over 249.5 pass yds (−116) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −116 to a fair close of −117 | Loss | +0.30% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | DET/BUF Over 54.5 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −3.96% | +0.88u |
| Thu Sep 17, 12:36 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIL @ PIT | MIL ML −140 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −140 to a fair close of −125 | Loss | −4.71% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 16, 6:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ WSH | PHI −1.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −1.12% | +0.91u |
| Tue Sep 15, 6:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAD @ CIN | LAD −1.5 (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −135 | Win | +1.73% | +0.77u |
| Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | DEN/KC Under 43.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −112 | Win | +0.19% | +0.89u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ LV | MIA/LV Under 40.5 (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of −103 | Win | −3.59% | +0.90u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ HOU | D. Montgomery over 10.5 rec yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of +107 | Win | −9.02% | +0.89u |
| Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFOSU @ TEX | OSU +1.5 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of +102 | Win | −5.23% | +0.92u |
| Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFLT @ LSU | LT/LSU Over 55.5 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +102 | Win | −6.90% | +0.88u |
| Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFALA @ UK | ALA/UK Over 48.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +120 | Win | −11.42% | +0.95u |
| Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFORE @ OKST | ORE −23.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | −0.25% | −1.00u |
All 66 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.