@justabetoutsideLosing to the close
70 graded picks, first post Oct 9, 2025, latest Sep 27, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
+6.70u
70 priced picks
ROI
+9.6%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
40-29-1
Win rate 58.0%
CLV
−1.72%
95% interval −3.07% to −0.43%
Beat the fair close
31.3%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 53 | 31-21-1 | +13.1% | −1.37% | 30.2% | Not yet |
| NFL | 17 | 9-8-0 | −1.4% | −3.06% | 35.7% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team total | 29 | 17-12-0 | +7.1% | −2.97% | 17.2% | Losing to the close |
| Moneyline | 11 | 5-5-1 | −5.4% | +1.15% | 36.4% | Unranked |
| Total | 11 | 7-4-0 | +17.6% | +0.26% | 54.5% | Unranked |
| Player props | 10 | 4-6-0 | −21.4% | −5.61% | 42.9% | Unranked |
| Spread | 9 | 7-2-0 | +60.2% | −0.62% | 33.3% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLV @ NO | LV/NO Over 43.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −103 | Win | −2.99% | +0.91u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ JAX | JAX −2.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −122 | Win | +1.57% | +0.85u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYJ @ DET | NYJ TT Over 19.5 (−136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −136 to a fair close of −143 | Win | +2.04% | +0.74u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCAR @ CLE | K. Concepcion over 3.5 rec (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −117 | Loss | +0.74% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 23, 10:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSD @ LAD | LAD TT Over 4.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | −2.35% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 23, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAA @ ATH | LAA TT Over 4.5 (−136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −136 to a fair close of −124 | Loss | −4.09% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 23, 8:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYM @ TEX | NYM F5 ML −124 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −124 to a fair close of −120 | Push | −1.60% | 0.00u |
| Wed Sep 23, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIA @ CHC | CHC −1.5 (+136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +136 to a fair close of +135 | Loss | +0.53% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 22, 8:05 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYM @ TEX | NYM/TEX Over 7.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −137 | Win | +6.08% | +0.83u |
| Tue Sep 22, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ KC | CHW ML −118 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −112 | Win | −2.60% | +0.85u |
| Tue Sep 22, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIL @ PHI | PHI −1.5 (+158) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +158 to a fair close of +158 | Win | −0.04% | +1.58u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | I. Likely over 4.5 rec (−104) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −104 to a fair close of +142 | Win | −19.07% | +0.96u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ DAL | J. Daniels over 220.5 pass yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ ARI | SEA −3.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −110 | Win | −4.07% | +0.83u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLJAX @ DEN | JAX ML +126 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +126 to a fair close of +133 | Loss | −3.11% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCIN @ HOU | X. Hutchinson over 29.5 rec yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 | Win | n/a | +0.89u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNO @ BAL | T. Etienne under 10.5 rush att (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of +106 | Win | −6.80% | +0.92u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIN @ CHI | J. Jefferson over 77.5 rec yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPIT @ NE | PIT TT Under 18.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −114 | Win | −2.16% | +0.83u |
| Thu Sep 17, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ NYM | PHI/NYM F5 Under 4.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −4.22% | +0.83u |
| Tue Sep 15, 8:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBOS @ TEX | TEX TT Over 3.5 (−136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −136 to a fair close of −130 | Win | −2.03% | +0.74u |
| Tue Sep 15, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYY @ MIN | NYY −1.5 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +110 | Win | −4.98% | +1.00u |
| Tue Sep 15, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBAL @ NYM | BAL/NYM Over 7.5 (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −121 | Win | −0.39% | +0.82u |
| Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | R. Rice over 5.5 rec (+102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +102 to a fair close of +140 | Loss | −15.77% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 14, 7:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSF @ STL | STL TT Over 3.5 (−138) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −138 to a fair close of −136 | Loss | −0.60% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 14, 7:08 PM ETReconstructed | MLBDET @ TOR | DET/TOR Over 7.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −7.84% | +0.89u |
| Mon Sep 14, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAD @ CIN | LAD TT Over 4.5 (−102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −102 to a fair close of −101 | Loss | −0.51% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ MIN | GB TT Under 23.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −128 | Win | +2.97% | +0.83u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCHI @ CAR | CAR ML +140 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +140 to a fair close of +147 | Loss | −3.01% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ HOU | HOU ML +102 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +102 to a fair close of +103 | Loss | −0.46% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ IND | IND +3.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −135 | Loss | +7.32% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 11, 7:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCIN @ MIL | CIN/MIL Over 7.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −120 | Win | +0.02% | +0.83u |
| Fri Sep 11, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBKC @ BOS | KC/BOS Over 8.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of +103 | Loss | −5.08% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 11, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBHOU @ TB | TB ML −128 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −128 to a fair close of −178 | Win | +14.13% | +0.78u |
| Tue Sep 8, 10:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCIN @ LAD | LAD TT Over 4.5 (−138) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −138 to a fair close of −125 | Loss | −4.33% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 8, 9:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSTL @ SF | STL TT Over 3.5 (−132) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −132 to a fair close of −117 | Loss | −5.25% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 8, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBWSH @ SD | WSH/SD Over 7.5 (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −129 | Win | +2.57% | +0.82u |
| Tue Sep 8, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTOR @ ATH | TOR TT Over 5.5 (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of +120 | Loss | −13.60% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 4, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTOR @ KC | TOR TT Over 4.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −114 | Win | −2.38% | +0.83u |
| Fri Sep 4, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ MIA | CHC TT Over 4.5 (+116) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +116 to a fair close of +100 | Win | +8.00% | +1.16u |
| Fri Sep 4, 6:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAA @ PIT | PIT TT Over 4.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −115 | Loss | −1.22% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 1, 10:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSTL @ LAD | STL TT Over 3.5 (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −8.42% | +0.77u |
| Tue Sep 1, 6:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSEA @ BOS | BOS TT Over 3.5 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +103 | Win | −7.68% | +0.88u |
| Tue Sep 1, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSD @ CIN | SD TT Over 4.5 (−136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −136 to a fair close of −123 | Loss | −4.44% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 1, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTOR @ CLE | CLE TT Over 4.5 (+106) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +106 to a fair close of +115 | Win | −4.15% | +1.06u |
| Tue Aug 25, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ SEA | PHI TT Over 3.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −118 | Loss | −0.59% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 25, 9:38 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCLE @ LAA | G. Williams over 8.5 Ks (+134) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +134 to a fair close of +123 | Loss | +4.90% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 25, 7:08 PM ETReconstructed | MLBKC @ TOR | KC TT Over 3.5 (−143) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −143 to a fair close of −116 | Win | −8.76% | +0.70u |
| Tue Aug 25, 6:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBOS @ MIA | BOS TT Over 3.5 (−136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −136 to a fair close of −129 | Win | −2.19% | +0.74u |
| Mon Aug 24, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIN @ ATH | MIN TT Over 5.5 (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of −122 | Win | +3.41% | +0.89u |
All 70 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.