Reddit · 6 graded picks

u/LonelyRole8342Unranked

First post Sep 9, 2026, latest Sep 14, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.

u/lonelyrole8342 (opens in a new tab)

Net units (1u flat)

+1.26u

6 priced picks

ROI

+21.0%

Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks

Record

4-2-0

Win rate 66.7%

CLV

−4.64%

95% interval −9.00% to −0.20%

Beat fair close

20.0%

Share of priced picks that beat the fair close

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Cumulative units (1u flat)

Now +1.26u, peak +2.26u

Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.

By sport

By sport
Sport	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
NFL	4	2-2-0	−11.0%	−8.38%	0.0%	Unranked
NCAAF	2	2-0-0	+85.1%	+0.98%	50.0%	Unranked

By market

By market
Market	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
Player props	2	1-1-0	−6.5%	−11.83%	0.0%	Unranked
Total	2	1-1-0	−6.5%	−2.63%	50.0%	Unranked
Moneyline	1	1-0-0	+83.3%	−0.36%	0.0%	Unranked
Spread	1	1-0-0	+69.0%	−5.75%	0.0%	Unranked

Graded picks

6 graded, newest game first. Each links to the original public post. All picks so far are reconstructed from public posts.

u/LonelyRole8342: graded picks
Game (ET)	Sport	Pick	Taken, fair close	Result	CLV	Units
Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed	NFL	T. Kelce over 4.5 rec (+125) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · DEN @ KC	+125 to a fair close of +155	Loss	−11.83%	−1.00u
Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed	NFL	G. Wilson over 62.5 rec yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · NYJ @ TEN	−115	Win	No closing price for this market	+0.87u
Sep 12, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed	NCAAF	TEX ML −120 (original post, opens in a new tab)NCAAF · OSU @ TEX	−120 to a fair close of −119	Win	−0.36%	+0.83u
Sep 11, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed	NCAAF	MIZ/KU Over 50.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab)NCAAF · MIZ @ KU	−115 to a fair close of −121	Win	+2.32%	+0.87u
Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed	NFL	SF/LAR Over 47.5 (−124) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · SF @ LAR	−124 to a fair close of −105	Loss	−7.58%	−1.00u
Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed	NFL	SEA −2.5 (−145) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · NE @ SEA	−145 to a fair close of −126	Win	−5.75%	+0.69u

Each pick was reconstructed from its original public post, at the time and price it was posted. Only picks on games that have started are listed. See the methodology.

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