u/NatureBoyRicFlair36Losing to the close
520 graded picks, first post Oct 1, 2025, latest Sep 25, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
−18.45u
520 priced picks
ROI
−3.5%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
256-262-2
Win rate 49.4%
CLV
−2.26%
95% interval −2.91% to −1.65%
Beat the fair close
26.5%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | 116 | 51-63-2 | −9.3% | −2.81% | 13.8% | Losing to the close |
| NCAAB | 113 | 64-49-0 | +8.4% | −1.69% | 33.9% | Losing to the close |
| MLB | 100 | 50-50-0 | −2.9% | −1.92% | 22.0% | Losing to the close |
| NCAAF | 73 | 38-35-0 | +0.7% | −2.01% | 40.6% | Losing to the close |
| NBA | 58 | 26-32-0 | −13.6% | −2.66% | 17.2% | Losing to the close |
| NFL | 43 | 19-24-0 | −15.8% | −1.61% | 39.0% | Not yet |
| MMA | 17 | 8-9-0 | −0.3% | −5.59% | 35.3% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 186 | 98-86-2 | +1.5% | −1.66% | 27.6% | Losing to the close |
| Spread | 165 | 80-85-0 | −4.0% | −2.13% | 28.5% | Losing to the close |
| Moneyline | 111 | 48-63-0 | −13.1% | −2.59% | 25.2% | Losing to the close |
| Player props | 45 | 23-22-0 | −0.9% | −4.55% | 10.3% | Losing to the close |
| Team total | 13 | 7-6-0 | +3.3% | −2.89% | 46.2% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIN @ TB | MIN −1.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +107 | Win | −5.77% | +0.95u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ WSH | SEA −7 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −124 | Loss | +7.93% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 26, 10:15 PM ETReconstructed | MMAR. Barcelos vs R. Rosas Jr | R. Barcelos ML +135 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +135 to a fair close of +135 | Loss | −0.12% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 25, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBARI @ SD | ARI/SD Over 7.5 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −3.21% | +0.92u |
| Fri Sep 25, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSTL @ MIL | MIL −1.5 (+120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +120 to a fair close of +130 | Win | −4.22% | +1.20u |
| Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ GB | S. Moore over 12.5 rec yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +103 | Win | −6.09% | +0.91u |
| Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ GB | J. Dotson over 19.5 rec yds (+104) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +104 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 24, 3:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBARI @ COL | ARI −1.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −116 | Win | −1.72% | +0.83u |
| Wed Sep 23, 8:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBARI @ COL | ARI −1.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −101 | Win | −1.91% | +0.95u |
| Wed Sep 23, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIA @ CHC | MIA/CHC Over 7 (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +117 | Loss | −3.22% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 22, 6:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCLE @ BOS | CLE ML +110 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +113 | Win | −1.19% | +1.10u |
| Wed Sep 16, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIA @ ARI | MIA/ARI Over 9 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +103 | Loss | −1.43% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 16, 9:39 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSEA @ LAA | SEA/LAA Over 8 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +101 | Win | −0.71% | +1.00u |
| Wed Sep 16, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIL @ PIT | MIL ML −125 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −122 | Win | −1.22% | +0.80u |
| Wed Sep 16, 1:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYY @ MIN | NYY −1.5 (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +108 | Loss | +0.98% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 12, 7:15 PM ETReconstructed | MMAB. Moreno vs J. Morales | B. Moreno ML +100 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +100 | Win | 0.00% | +1.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYM @ MIA | NYM/MIA Over 8.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −110 | Win | −3.34% | +0.85u |
| Wed Sep 9, 3:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSTL @ SF | STL ML −110 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | −0.22% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 8, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYM @ MIA | NYM/MIA Over 8 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −106 | Win | −3.84% | +0.87u |
| Tue Sep 8, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIN @ DET | MIN/DET Over 8 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −114 | Loss | −0.43% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 7, 1:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYM @ MIA | NYM/MIA Over 8 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −2.31% | +0.87u |
| Fri Sep 4, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYY @ SD | NYY ML −110 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −101 | Loss | −4.08% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 4, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ MIA | CHC/MIA Over 8 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −0.12% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 3, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ SEA | ATH/SEA Over 7 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −123 | Win | +2.96% | +0.87u |
| Wed Sep 2, 3:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBAL @ COL | BAL −1.5 (−106) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −106 to a fair close of −108 | Loss | +1.11% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 1, 8:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBAL @ COL | BAL −1.5 (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 to a fair close of +106 | Loss | −0.69% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 1, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIA @ KC | KC ML −114 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −103 | Loss | −4.77% | −1.00u |
| Mon Aug 31, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYM @ TB | TB −1.5 (+130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +130 to a fair close of +128 | Loss | +1.02% | −1.00u |
| Fri Aug 28, 8:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ MIN | CHW ML +115 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +115 to a fair close of +121 | Win | −2.76% | +1.15u |
| Thu Aug 27, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIL @ NYM | MIL −1.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +107 | Win | −5.66% | +0.95u |
| Thu Aug 27, 7:08 PM ETReconstructed | MLBKC @ TOR | KC ML −105 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −1.43% | +0.95u |
| Tue Aug 25, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ SEA | PHI/SEA Over 7.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −120 | Loss | +1.97% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 25, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ DET | TB ML −125 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −121 | Loss | −1.41% | −1.00u |
| Mon Aug 24, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ SEA | PHI ML −108 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of −111 | Loss | +1.10% | −1.00u |
| Mon Aug 24, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ ARI | CHC/ARI Over 9 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +102 | Loss | −3.31% | −1.00u |
| Sat Aug 22, 7:15 PM ETReconstructed | MMAN. Haqparast vs C. Padilla | C. Padilla ML +100 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of −307 | Win | +50.90% | +1.00u |
| Fri Aug 21, 8:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ HOU | ATH/HOU Over 8 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −106 | Loss | −1.65% | −1.00u |
| Fri Aug 21, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBWSH @ MIA | WSH/MIA Over 7.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −4.29% | −1.00u |
| Wed Aug 19, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ KC | ATH/KC Over 8.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −1.37% | +0.91u |
| Tue Aug 18, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ KC | ATH/KC Over 9 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −1.45% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 18, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSEA @ MIL | MIL −1.5 (+131) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +131 to a fair close of +140 | Win | −3.69% | +1.31u |
| Tue Aug 18, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATL @ MIN | ATL ML −120 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −135 | Loss | +5.23% | −1.00u |
| Mon Aug 17, 8:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ CHC | CHW/CHC Over 8 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −3.00% | +0.88u |
| Mon Aug 17, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATL @ MIN | ATL ML −122 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −122 | Loss | +0.04% | −1.00u |
| Thu Aug 13, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ MIN | PHI/MIN Over 8.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | +2.02% | −1.00u |
| Thu Aug 13, 4:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ WSH | CHC/WSH Over 8.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −106 | Loss | −3.84% | −1.00u |
| Wed Aug 12, 3:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ ATH | TB −1.5 (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −130 | Win | +1.81% | +0.80u |
| Tue Aug 11, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ ARI | COL/ARI Over 9 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −108 | Loss | −2.75% | −1.00u |
| Tue Aug 11, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ ATH | TB −1.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −114 | Win | +1.50% | +0.91u |
| Tue Aug 11, 6:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ WSH | CHC/WSH Over 9 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +103 | Win | −1.43% | +1.00u |
All 520 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.