Reddit · 33 graded picks

u/Novel_Calendar5168Losing to the close

First post Feb 12, 2026, latest Oct 10, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.

u/novel_calendar5168 (opens in a new tab)

Net units (1u flat)

+1.24u

27 priced picks

ROI

+4.6%

Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks

Record

12-21-0

Win rate 36.4%

CLV

−19.01%

95% interval −27.85% to −10.66%

Beat fair close

0.0%

Share of priced picks that beat the fair close

Open picks are for members

Records are free. Members see today's board: every pick, how many cappers are on it, and who.

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Cumulative units (1u flat)

Now +1.23u, peak +11.65u

Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.

By sport

By sport
Sport	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
NFL	23	10-13-0	−20.1%	−8.49%	0.0%	Losing to the close
MLB	8	2-6-0	+83.1%	−28.69%	0.0%	Unranked
NCAAB	2	0-2-0	−100.0%	−5.73%	0.0%	Unranked

By market

By market
Market	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
Player props	33	12-21-0	+4.6%	−19.01%	0.0%	Losing to the close

Graded picks

33 graded, newest game first. Each links to the original public post.

u/Novel_Calendar5168: graded picks
Game (ET)	Sport	Pick	Taken, fair close	Result	CLV	Units
Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETLive	NFL	R. Wilson anytime TD (+280) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · IND @ PIT	+280	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETLive	NFL	J. Downs anytime TD (+230) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · IND @ PIT	+230	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETLive	NFL	R. Wilson over 39.5 rec yds (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · IND @ PIT	−135 to a fair close of −101	Loss	−12.59%	−1.00u
Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETLive	NFL	J. Jefferson anytime TD (+165) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · MIN @ NO	+165	Win	No closing price for this market	+1.65u
Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETLive	NFL	J. Jefferson over 75.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · MIN @ NO	unpriced	Win	No closing price for this market	Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units
Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETLive	NFL	A. Ekeler anytime TD (+500) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · NYG @ WSH	+500	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETLive	NFL	I. Likely anytime TD (+240) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · NYG @ WSH	+240	Win	No closing price for this market	+2.40u
Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETLive	NFL	M. Nabers over 54.5 rec yds (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · NYG @ WSH	−120 to a fair close of −109	Win	−4.22%	+0.83u
Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive	NFL	D. Prescott anytime TD (+480) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL	+480	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive	NFL	S. Tucker anytime TD (+350) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL	+350	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive	NFL	J. Ferguson anytime TD (+220) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL	+220	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive	NFL	G. Pickens anytime TD (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL	+110	Win	No closing price for this market	+1.10u
Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive	NFL	J. Williams over 14.5 rec yds (−121) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL	−121 to a fair close of +100	Win	−8.68%	+0.83u
Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive	NFL	G. Pickens over 59.5 rec yds (−129) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL	−129	Win	No closing price for this market	+0.78u
Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive	NFL	J. Daniels over 43.5 rush yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL	unpriced	Loss	No closing price for this market	Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units
Oct 5, 8:15 PM ETLive	NFL	D. London anytime TD (+125) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · ATL @ NO	+125	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Oct 5, 8:15 PM ETLive	NFL	D. London over 75.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · ATL @ NO	unpriced	Win	No closing price for this market	Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units
Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETLive	NFL	T. Tremble anytime TD (+500) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · DET @ CAR	+500	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETLive	NFL	J. Williams anytime TD (+200) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · DET @ CAR	+200	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETLive	NFL	B. Young over 1.5 pass TDs (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · DET @ CAR	unpriced	Win	No closing price for this market	Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units
Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETLive	NFL	T. McMillan over 69.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · DET @ CAR	unpriced	Win	No closing price for this market	Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units
Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETLive	NFL	J. Daniels anytime TD (+370) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · GB @ TB	+370	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETLive	NFL	D. Moore over 49.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · NE @ BUF	unpriced	Loss	No closing price for this market	Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units
Apr 29, 3:11 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	S. Ohtani over 1.5 HR (+1500) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · MIA @ LAD	+1500	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Apr 29, 3:08 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	T. Story over 0.5 HR (+438) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · BOS @ TOR	+438 to a fair close of +633	Loss	−26.60%	−1.00u
Apr 29, 1:41 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	C. Raleigh over 1.5 HR (+2350) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · SEA @ MIN	+2350	Loss	No closing price for this market	−1.00u
Apr 29, 1:41 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	B. Buxton over 0.5 HR (+420) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · SEA @ MIN	+420 to a fair close of +552	Loss	−20.18%	−1.00u
Apr 6, 9:00 PM ETReconstructed	NCAAB	A. Mara over 12.5 pts (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab)NCAAB · CONN @ MICH	−120 to a fair close of −109	Loss	−4.58%	−1.00u
Apr 6, 9:00 PM ETReconstructed	NCAAB	E. Cadeau over 6.5 ast (−160) (original post, opens in a new tab)NCAAB · CONN @ MICH	−160 to a fair close of −134	Loss	−6.89%	−1.00u
Mar 31, 10:11 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	S. Ohtani over 0.5 HR (+155) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · CLE @ LAD	+155 to a fair close of +213	Loss	−18.42%	−1.00u
Mar 31, 8:11 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	C. Rafaela over 0.5 HR (+925) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · BOS @ HOU	+925 to a fair close of +2274	Win	−56.82%	+9.25u
Mar 31, 8:11 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	Y. Alvarez over 0.5 HR (+340) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · BOS @ HOU	+340 to a fair close of +432	Win	−17.35%	+3.40u
Mar 31, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	B. Rooker over 0.5 HR (+390) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · ATH @ ATL	+390 to a fair close of +629	Loss	−32.76%	−1.00u

23 picks were tracked live; 10 were reconstructed from the original public posts, at the time and price they were posted. Each row is labeled. Only picks on games that have started are listed. See the methodology.

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