@propbetguyUnranked

9 graded picks, first post Aug 4, 2026, latest Sep 27, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.

Units won, flat 1u

+6.37u

9 priced picks

ROI

+70.7%

Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks

Record

8-1-0

Win rate 88.9%

CLV

−0.20%

95% interval −4.15% to +5.16%

Beat the fair close

42.9%

Share of priced picks above the no-vig close

Cumulative units, flat 1u

Now +6.4u, peak +6.4u

Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.

By sport

By sport
SportPicksRecordROICLVBeat fair closeStatus
NFL66-0-0+91.1%+2.42%50.0%Unranked
MLB32-1-0+30.0%−3.69%33.3%Unranked

By market

By market
MarketPicksRecordROICLVBeat fair closeStatus
Player props98-1-0+70.7%−0.20%42.9%Unranked

Graded picks

9 graded, newest game first. Each links to the original public post.

@propbetguy: graded picks
Game (ET)SportPickTaken, fair closeResultCLVUnits
Sun Sep 27, 4:05 PM ETReconstructedNFLARI @ SFM. Wilson over 44.5 rec yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab)−113 to a fair close of −104Win−4.00%+0.89u
Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructedNFLNYG @ LARB. Corum over 10.5 rush att (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab)−105 to a fair close of −114Win+3.91%+0.95u
Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructedNFLWSH @ DALJ. Daniels over 35.5 rush yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab)−113Winn/a+0.89u
Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructedNFLDEN @ KCT. Kelce over 39.5 rec yds (−121) (original post, opens in a new tab)−121Winn/a+0.83u
Sun Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETReconstructedNFLDAL @ NYGI. Likely over 3.5 rec (+104) (original post, opens in a new tab)+104 to a fair close of +110Win−2.96%+1.04u
Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructedNFLMIA @ LVM. Willis over 34.5 rush yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab)−114 to a fair close of −150Win+12.75%+0.88u
Tue Aug 18, 7:40 PM ETReconstructedMLBATL @ MINT. Mahle over 4.5 Ks (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab)−122 to a fair close of −107Loss−5.97%−1.00u
Fri Aug 14, 6:41 PM ETReconstructedMLBBOS @ PITJ. Bennett under 5.5 hits allowed (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab)−125 to a fair close of −111Win−5.19%+0.80u
Tue Aug 4, 6:40 PM ETReconstructedMLBATH @ CINB. Singer under 5.5 hits allowed (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab)+110 to a fair close of +110Win+0.07%+1.10u

All 9 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.