u/Romans828BelieverLosing to the close
20 graded picks, first post Sep 2, 2026, latest Sep 27, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
+2.66u
20 priced picks
ROI
+13.3%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
13-7-0
Win rate 65.0%
CLV
−1.79%
95% interval −2.87% to −0.64%
Beat the fair close
30.0%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAF | 9 | 4-5-0 | −22.4% | −0.63% | 44.4% | Unranked |
| NFL | 8 | 6-2-0 | +34.0% | −2.68% | 25.0% | Unranked |
| MLB | 3 | 3-0-0 | +65.2% | −2.91% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 12 | 7-5-0 | +2.4% | −2.33% | 25.0% | Unranked |
| Moneyline | 5 | 5-0-0 | +69.9% | −0.64% | 40.0% | Unranked |
| Total | 2 | 1-1-0 | −6.1% | −0.64% | 50.0% | Unranked |
| Team total | 1 | 0-1-0 | −100.0% | −3.49% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIN @ TB | TB +2.5 (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −126 | Loss | −2.90% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 26, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFORE @ USC | ORE ML −170 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −170 to a fair close of −177 | Win | +1.39% | +0.59u |
| Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ GB | GB 1H −2.5 (−136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −136 to a fair close of −128 | Loss | −2.69% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 22, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIL @ PHI | PHI ML −142 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −142 to a fair close of −140 | Win | −0.49% | +0.70u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | LAR −6.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −2.30% | +0.87u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | IND +6.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −4.53% | +0.83u |
| Sat Sep 19, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFFLA @ AUB | AUB TT Under 27.5 (−150) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −150 to a fair close of −138 | Loss | −3.49% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 18, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFHOU @ TTU | TTU −6.5 (−145) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −145 to a fair close of −136 | Loss | −2.54% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | BUF −3 (−172) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −172 to a fair close of −149 | Win | −5.49% | +0.58u |
| Wed Sep 16, 8:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBKC @ HOU | KC +1.5 (−155) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −155 to a fair close of −141 | Win | −3.65% | +0.65u |
| Tue Sep 15, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBKC @ HOU | HOU ML −165 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −165 to a fair close of −146 | Win | −4.58% | +0.61u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ MIN | MIN ML −130 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −134 | Win | +1.23% | +0.77u |
| Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFOSU @ TEX | TEX ML −121 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −121 to a fair close of −119 | Win | −0.73% | +0.83u |
| Fri Sep 11, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFMIZ @ KU | KU +5.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −117 | Loss | +2.92% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | SF +4.5 (−127) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −127 to a fair close of −113 | Win | −4.98% | +0.79u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | NE/SEA 1H Under 22.5 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −114 | Win | +0.18% | +0.88u |
| Sun Sep 6, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFLOU @ MISS | LOU/MISS Under 55.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −1.47% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCLEM @ LSU | CLEM +10.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −107 | Loss | −4.65% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 4, 9:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFFRES @ USC | USC −21 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −121 | Win | +0.19% | +0.83u |
| Thu Sep 3, 9:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUAB @ ILL | UAB +28.5 (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −144 | Win | +2.69% | +0.74u |
All 20 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.