Reddit · 34 graded picks
u/taraujoLosing to the close
First post Nov 29, 2025, latest Oct 8, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Net units (1u flat)
−6.55u
27 priced picks
ROI
−24.3%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
15-19-0
Win rate 44.1%
CLV
−6.22%
95% interval −11.15% to −3.14%
Beat fair close
21.1%
Share of priced picks that beat the fair close
Open picks are for members
Records are free. Members see today's board: every pick, how many cappers are on it, and who.
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 19 | 9-10-0 | −20.7% | −4.28% | 20.0% | Unranked |
| NBA | 11 | 5-6-0 | −18.0% | −3.88% | 27.3% | Unranked |
| MLB | 4 | 1-3-0 | −52.3% | −18.05% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player props | 32 | 13-19-0 | −33.5% | −6.52% | 22.2% | Losing to the close |
| Spread | 1 | 1-0-0 | +90.9% | No picks with a fair close yet | No picks with a fair close yet | Unranked |
| Total | 1 | 1-0-0 | +90.9% | −0.90% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | J. Ferguson over 26.5 rec yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL | −114 to a fair close of +102 | Loss | −7.08% | −1.00u |
| Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | J. Daniels under 183.5 pass yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL | unpriced | Loss | No closing price for this market | Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units |
| Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | J. Daniels over 0.5 INTs (−182) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL | −182 to a fair close of −165 | Loss | −3.45% | −1.00u |
| Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | B. Irving over 13.5 rush att (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL | +105 to a fair close of +101 | Win | +1.93% | +1.05u |
| Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | K. Gainwell over 9.5 rec yds (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL | −135 to a fair close of −120 | Win | −5.18% | +0.74u |
| Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | C. Lamb over 82.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL | unpriced | Loss | No closing price for this market | Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units |
| Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | C. Lamb over 6.5 rec (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL | −110 to a fair close of +107 | Loss | −7.62% | −1.00u |
| Oct 8, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | D. Prescott over 264.5 pass yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · TB @ DAL | unpriced | Win | No closing price for this market | Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units |
| Oct 7, 6:10 PM ETLive | MLB | LAD/ATL Under 7.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · LAD @ ATL | −110 to a fair close of −108 | Win | −0.90% | +0.91u |
| Oct 5, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | C. Olave over 86.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · ATL @ NO | unpriced | Win | No closing price for this market | Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units |
| Oct 5, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | D. London over 79.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · ATL @ NO | unpriced | Win | No closing price for this market | Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units |
| Oct 5, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | T. Shough over 1.5 pass TDs (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · ATL @ NO | unpriced | Loss | No closing price for this market | Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units |
| Oct 5, 8:15 PM ETLive | NFL | T. Shough over 258.5 pass yds (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · ATL @ NO | unpriced | Win | No closing price for this market | Unpriced: counts in the record, not in units |
| Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETLive | NFL | K. Cousins over 279.5 pass yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · KC @ LV | −110 | Win | No closing price for this market | +0.91u |
| Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETLive | NFL | P. Mahomes over 289.5 pass yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · KC @ LV | −110 | Loss | No closing price for this market | −1.00u |
| Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETLive | NFL | T. Kelce over 79.5 rec yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · KC @ LV | −110 | Loss | No closing price for this market | −1.00u |
| Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETLive | NFL | J. Waddle over 63.5 rec yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · DEN @ SF | −110 | Loss | No closing price for this market | −1.00u |
| Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETLive | NFL | J. Cook over 74.5 rush yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · NE @ BUF | −110 | Win | No closing price for this market | +0.91u |
| Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETLive | NFL | J. Allen over 274.5 pass yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · NE @ BUF | −110 | Loss | No closing price for this market | −1.00u |
| Oct 4, 9:30 AM ETLive | NFL | IND +3.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)NFL · IND @ WSH | −110 | Win | No closing price for this market | +0.91u |
| Oct 3, 4:00 PM ETLive | MLB | M. Betts over 0.5 HR (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · ATL @ LAD | +110 | Loss | No closing price for this market | −1.00u |
| Aug 9, 1:35 PM ETReconstructed | MLB | W. Abreu over 0.5 HR (+280) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · ATH @ BOS | +280 to a fair close of +423 | Loss | −27.28% | −1.00u |
| Aug 9, 1:35 PM ETReconstructed | MLB | R. Acuña Jr. over 0.5 HR (+390) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · ATL @ NYY | +390 to a fair close of +562 | Loss | −25.96% | −1.00u |
| Feb 19, 10:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | N. Jokic over 9.5 ast (−133) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · DEN @ LAC | −133 to a fair close of −128 | Loss | −1.76% | −1.00u |
| Feb 10, 10:30 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | S. Castle over 6.5 ast (−151) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · SA @ LAL | −151 to a fair close of −138 | Win | −3.48% | +0.66u |
| Feb 10, 9:00 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | D. Booker over 30.5 P+A (−119) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · DAL @ PHX | −119 to a fair close of −122 | Loss | +1.08% | −1.00u |
| Feb 10, 9:00 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | C. Flagg over 26.5 P+A (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · DAL @ PHX | −130 to a fair close of −123 | Win | −2.57% | +0.77u |
| Feb 10, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | A. Sengun over 15.5 R+A (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · LAC @ HOU | −111 to a fair close of +109 | Loss | −9.22% | −1.00u |
| Feb 10, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | K. Towns over 33.5 P+R (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · IND @ NY | −105 to a fair close of −109 | Win | +1.61% | +0.95u |
| Feb 9, 10:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | L. James over 13.5 R+A (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · OKC @ LAL | −130 to a fair close of −132 | Win | +0.79% | +0.77u |
| Feb 9, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | S. Bey over 24.5 P+R (−107) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · SAC @ NO | −107 to a fair close of +105 | Loss | −5.44% | −1.00u |
| Feb 9, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | K. Porter Jr. over 11.5 R+A (−131) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · MIL @ ORL | −131 to a fair close of −116 | Loss | −5.46% | −1.00u |
| Feb 7, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | J. Johnson over 31.5 P+A (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · CHA @ ATL | −115 to a fair close of +109 | Win | −10.72% | +0.87u |
| Feb 7, 6:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBA | N. Marshall over 5.5 reb (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab)NBA · DAL @ SA | +105 to a fair close of +122 | Loss | −7.45% | −1.00u |
21 picks were tracked live; 13 were reconstructed from the original public posts, at the time and price they were posted. Each row is labeled. Only picks on games that have started are listed. See the methodology.
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