u/Timely-Conclusion532Losing to the close
281 graded picks, first post Sep 30, 2025, latest Sep 30, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
+7.00u
281 priced picks
ROI
+2.5%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
177-104-0
Win rate 63.0%
CLV
−3.84%
95% interval −4.38% to −3.32%
Beat the fair close
14.7%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 151 | 91-60-0 | −1.3% | −4.33% | 4.6% | Losing to the close |
| NCAAB | 51 | 36-15-0 | +15.5% | −5.76% | 15.7% | Losing to the close |
| NBA | 47 | 30-17-0 | +0.6% | −1.09% | 36.2% | Not yet |
| NFL | 11 | 6-5-0 | −14.5% | −2.06% | 30.0% | Unranked |
| NCAAF | 10 | 7-3-0 | +19.5% | −2.99% | 30.0% | Unranked |
| WNBA | 6 | 6-0-0 | +63.9% | −1.47% | 40.0% | Unranked |
| NHL | 5 | 1-4-0 | −68.1% | −2.83% | 20.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 192 | 114-78-0 | −3.4% | −4.29% | 6.8% | Losing to the close |
| Spread | 60 | 46-14-0 | +22.8% | −3.13% | 33.3% | Losing to the close |
| Moneyline | 26 | 14-12-0 | −6.4% | −2.22% | 30.8% | Losing to the close |
| Player props | 3 | 3-0-0 | +52.6% | −1.49% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Sep 30, 10:00 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ SD | CHC/SD Under 8.5 (−186) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −186 to a fair close of −173 | Win | −2.64% | +0.54u |
| Tue Sep 29, 10:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ SD | CHC/SD Over 6.5 (−184) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −184 to a fair close of −153 | Win | −6.76% | +0.54u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | PHI/CHI Over 40.5 (−148) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −148 to a fair close of −134 | Loss | −4.12% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ DEN | DEN +3.5 (−166) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −166 to a fair close of −179 | Win | +2.84% | +0.60u |
| Sat Sep 26, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ PHI | TB/PHI Over 6.5 (−136) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −136 to a fair close of −120 | Win | −5.38% | +0.74u |
| Fri Sep 25, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCLE @ KC | CLE/KC Under 8.5 (−186) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −186 to a fair close of −163 | Loss | −4.73% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 24, 6:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCLE @ BOS | CLE/BOS Under 7.5 (−174) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −174 to a fair close of −153 | Win | −4.87% | +0.57u |
| Wed Sep 23, 7:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ NYY | TB/NYY Under 7.5 (−200) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −200 to a fair close of −166 | Loss | −6.31% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 22, 1:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ NYY | TB/NYY Under 7.5 (−180) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −180 to a fair close of −150 | Win | −6.78% | +0.56u |
| Mon Sep 21, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBWSH @ DET | WSH/DET Over 7.5 (−158) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −158 to a fair close of −143 | Win | −3.93% | +0.63u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ CIN | CHC/CIN Under 10.5 (−150) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −150 to a fair close of −136 | Win | −3.87% | +0.67u |
| Sat Sep 19, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBKC @ PIT | KC/PIT Under 8.5 (−142) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −142 to a fair close of −124 | Loss | −5.80% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 18, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYY @ ARI | NYY/ARI Under 8.5 (−158) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −158 to a fair close of −133 | Loss | −6.87% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBOS @ TEX | BOS/TEX Under 8.5 (−148) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −148 to a fair close of −125 | Win | −6.87% | +0.68u |
| Wed Sep 16, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATL @ CHC | ATL/CHC Under 8.5 (−156) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −156 to a fair close of −142 | Loss | −3.59% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 15, 7:45 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSF @ STL | SF/STL Under 8.5 (−132) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −132 to a fair close of −118 | Loss | −4.92% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 14, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAD @ CIN | LAD/CIN Under 8.5 (−162) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −162 to a fair close of −143 | Win | −4.71% | +0.62u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:38 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBAL @ TOR | BAL/TOR Under 8.5 (−180) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −180 to a fair close of −166 | Loss | −2.94% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 12, 1:36 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYM @ NYY | NYM/NYY Under 8.5 (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −115 | Loss | −5.25% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 11, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAD @ MIA | LAD/MIA Under 8.5 (−180) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −180 to a fair close of −153 | Win | −5.90% | +0.56u |
| Thu Sep 10, 7:05 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ NYY | COL/NYY Under 9.5 (−186) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −186 to a fair close of −162 | Loss | −4.97% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 7:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ NYY | COL/NYY Over 8.5 (−154) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −154 to a fair close of −148 | Loss | −1.70% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 8, 7:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ NYY | COL/NYY Under 8.5 (−162) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −162 to a fair close of −136 | Win | −6.71% | +0.62u |
| Sun Sep 6, 1:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSF @ NYM | SF/NYM Under 8.5 (−132) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −132 to a fair close of −125 | Win | −2.49% | +0.76u |
| Sat Sep 5, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ SEA | ATH/SEA Under 8.5 (−154) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −154 to a fair close of −140 | Win | −3.68% | +0.65u |
| Fri Sep 4, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSF @ NYM | SF/NYM Under 8.5 (−170) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −170 to a fair close of −135 | Loss | −8.83% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 3, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIA @ KC | MIA/KC Over 8.5 (−146) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −146 to a fair close of −132 | Win | −4.22% | +0.68u |
| Wed Sep 2, 9:39 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYY @ LAA | NYY/LAA Under 7.5 (−194) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −194 to a fair close of −153 | Loss | −8.32% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 1, 9:39 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYY @ LAA | NYY/LAA Under 8.5 (−178) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −178 to a fair close of −155 | Loss | −5.03% | −1.00u |
| Mon Aug 31, 9:38 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYY @ LAA | NYY/LAA Under 8.5 (−128) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −128 to a fair close of −125 | Loss | −1.00% | −1.00u |
| Sun Aug 30, 7:21 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCIN @ CHC | CIN/CHC Over 8.5 (−154) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −154 to a fair close of −136 | Win | −4.86% | +0.65u |
| Sat Aug 29, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTEX @ MIL | TEX/MIL Under 8.5 (−128) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −128 to a fair close of −115 | Win | −4.78% | +0.78u |
| Fri Aug 28, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSEA @ TOR | SEA/TOR Under 7.5 (−162) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −162 to a fair close of −134 | Loss | −7.31% | −1.00u |
| Thu Aug 27, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAD @ ATL | LAD/ATL F5 Under 3.5 (−158) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −158 to a fair close of −136 | Win | −5.91% | +0.63u |
| Wed Aug 26, 7:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBAL @ STL | BAL/STL Over 7.5 (−154) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −154 to a fair close of −134 | Win | −5.62% | +0.65u |
| Tue Aug 25, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBLAD @ ATL | LAD/ATL Over 7.5 (−172) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −172 to a fair close of −142 | Loss | −7.23% | −1.00u |
| Mon Aug 24, 6:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ WSH | COL/WSH Under 8.5 (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −111 | Loss | −4.40% | −1.00u |
| Sun Aug 23, 4:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIN @ SD | MIN/SD Over 7.5 (−178) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −178 to a fair close of −157 | Win | −4.66% | +0.56u |
| Sat Aug 22, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSF @ BOS | SF/BOS Under 8.5 (−138) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −138 to a fair close of −110 | Win | −9.76% | +0.72u |
| Fri Aug 21, 7:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTB @ BAL | TB/BAL Under 8.5 (−147) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −147 to a fair close of −127 | Win | −5.95% | +0.68u |
| Thu Aug 20, 8:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBWSH @ TEX | WSH/TEX Under 8.5 (−160) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −160 to a fair close of −163 | Win | +0.79% | +0.63u |
| Wed Aug 19, 2:21 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ CHC | CHW/CHC Under 8.5 (−154) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −154 to a fair close of −133 | Win | −5.93% | +0.65u |
| Tue Aug 18, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSF @ CLE | SF/CLE Over 7.5 (−138) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −138 to a fair close of −117 | Win | −7.01% | +0.72u |
| Fri Aug 14, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSD @ CLE | SD/CLE Under 7.5 (−142) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −142 to a fair close of −130 | Loss | −3.61% | −1.00u |
| Thu Aug 13, 10:08 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTEX @ LAA | TEX/LAA Under 8.5 (−162) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −162 to a fair close of −156 | Win | −1.40% | +0.62u |
| Wed Aug 12, 10:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTEX @ LAA | TEX/LAA Under 9.5 (−156) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −156 to a fair close of −146 | Win | −2.47% | +0.64u |
| Tue Aug 11, 7:08 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBOS @ TOR | BOS/TOR Under 7.5 (−172) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −172 to a fair close of −148 | Loss | −5.75% | −1.00u |
| Mon Aug 10, 10:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBKC @ LAD | KC/LAD Under 8.5 (−180) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −180 to a fair close of −169 | Loss | −2.27% | −1.00u |
| Sun Aug 9, 2:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ KC | CHC/KC Over 9.5 (−146) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −146 to a fair close of −129 | Win | −5.03% | +0.68u |
| Sat Aug 8, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ KC | CHC/KC Under 10.5 (−166) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −166 to a fair close of −157 | Win | −2.05% | +0.60u |
All 281 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.