@wagertalkLosing to the close
28 graded picks, first post Aug 2, 2026, latest Sep 25, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
+1.61u
28 priced picks
ROI
+5.8%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
16-12-0
Win rate 57.1%
CLV
−4.71%
95% interval −6.58% to −2.67%
Beat the fair close
17.9%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAF | 18 | 10-8-0 | +4.3% | −5.18% | 22.2% | Unranked |
| NFL | 10 | 6-4-0 | +8.5% | −3.86% | 10.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 15 | 11-4-0 | +35.6% | −6.15% | 13.3% | Unranked |
| Total | 11 | 5-6-0 | −15.7% | −2.97% | 27.3% | Unranked |
| Moneyline | 1 | 0-1-0 | −100.0% | −4.39% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Player props | 1 | 0-1-0 | −100.0% | −2.45% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 26, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFORE @ USC | ORE/USC Over 62.5 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +131 | Win | −13.46% | +1.00u |
| Sat Sep 26, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFTEX @ TENN | TENN +5.5 (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −12.13% | +0.74u |
| Thu Sep 24, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFLIB @ CCU | LIB/CCU Over 52 (+112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +112 to a fair close of +126 | Loss | −6.20% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 24, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFLIB @ CCU | LIB −2.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −5.36% | +0.89u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLV @ LAC | J. Herbert over 223.5 pass yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −108 | Loss | −2.45% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLJAX @ DEN | DEN −2.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −6.13% | +0.83u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCIN @ HOU | HOU −3 (−102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −102 to a fair close of +111 | Loss | −6.36% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIN @ CHI | MIN +5.5 (−123) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −123 to a fair close of −111 | Win | −4.44% | +0.81u |
| Sat Sep 19, 4:15 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFMSST @ SC | SC −4.5 (−103) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −103 to a fair close of +129 | Loss | −14.00% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUNT @ TXST | TXST −2.5 (−121) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −121 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −4.66% | +0.83u |
| Sat Sep 19, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUNC @ CLEM | CLEM −3.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +122 | Win | −11.87% | +0.95u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | DET/BUF Over 53.5 (−134) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −134 to a fair close of −123 | Win | −3.83% | +0.75u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | BUF −4.5 (−127) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −127 to a fair close of −104 | Win | −8.70% | +0.79u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNO @ DET | NO ML +265 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +265 to a fair close of +282 | Loss | −4.39% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ IND | IND +3.5 (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 to a fair close of −135 | Loss | +6.47% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCHI @ CAR | CHI/CAR Over 46.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −103 | Win | −6.30% | +0.85u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCHI @ CAR | CHI −2.5 (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −116 | Win | −2.46% | +0.82u |
| Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFARIZ @ BYU | ARIZ/BYU Over 47.5 (−126) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −126 to a fair close of −121 | Loss | −1.84% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 11, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFMIZ @ KU | MIZ/KU Over 50.5 (−133) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −133 to a fair close of −121 | Win | −4.12% | +0.75u |
| Fri Sep 11, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFMIZ @ KU | MIZ −5.5 (−102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −102 to a fair close of +117 | Win | −8.72% | +0.98u |
| Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFFIU @ USF | FIU/USF Over 52.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −108 | Loss | +1.51% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFTULN @ DUKE | TULN/DUKE Over 51.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −2.38% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFTULN @ DUKE | TULN +7.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +112 | Loss | −10.12% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFOHIO @ NEB | OHIO/NEB Over 46.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of −117 | Win | +3.78% | +0.93u |
| Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFOHIO @ NEB | NEB −23.5 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −3.96% | +0.88u |
| Thu Sep 3, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCOLO @ GT | COLO/GT Over 50.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −137 | Loss | +8.14% | −1.00u |
| Sat Aug 29, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFHAW @ STAN | STAN −3.5 (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −123 | Win | +0.20% | +0.82u |
| Sat Aug 29, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUNC @ TCU | UNC/TCU Over 47 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +112 | Loss | −8.02% | −1.00u |
All 28 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.