Reddit · 8 graded picks

u/amnesiac854Unranked

First post Jul 8, 2026, latest Aug 20, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.

u/amnesiac854 (opens in a new tab)

Net units (1u flat)

−6.17u

8 priced picks

ROI

−77.1%

Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks

Record

1-7-0

Win rate 12.5%

CLV

−2.21%

95% interval −5.19% to +0.15%

Beat fair close

25.0%

Share of priced picks that beat the fair close

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Cumulative units (1u flat)

Now −6.17u, peak 0.00u

Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.

By sport

By sport
Sport	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
MLB	8	1-7-0	−77.1%	−2.21%	25.0%	Unranked

By market

By market
Market	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
Moneyline	8	1-7-0	−77.1%	−2.21%	25.0%	Unranked

Graded picks

8 graded, newest game first. Each links to the original public post. All picks so far are reconstructed from public posts.

u/amnesiac854: graded picks
Game (ET)	Sport	Pick	Taken, fair close	Result	CLV	Units
Aug 20, 2:11 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	MIL ML −120 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · SEA @ MIL	−120 to a fair close of −128	Win	+2.99%	+0.83u
Aug 19, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	MIL ML −120 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · SEA @ MIL	−120 to a fair close of −112	Loss	−3.34%	−1.00u
Aug 12, 4:10 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	MIL ML −112 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · MIL @ SD	−112 to a fair close of −107	Loss	−2.16%	−1.00u
Aug 5, 2:21 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	LAD ML +110 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · LAD @ CHC	+110 to a fair close of +109	Loss	+0.48%	−1.00u
Jul 29, 3:46 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	MIL ML −125 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · MIL @ SF	−125 to a fair close of +103	Loss	−11.31%	−1.00u
Jul 29, 1:06 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	WSH ML +105 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · TOR @ WSH	+105 to a fair close of +110	Loss	−2.39%	−1.00u
Jul 27, 6:46 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	WSH ML −120 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · TOR @ WSH	−120 to a fair close of −118	Loss	−0.74%	−1.00u
Jul 9, 1:36 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	CHC ML +115 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · CHC @ BAL	+115 to a fair close of +118	Loss	−1.18%	−1.00u

Each pick was reconstructed from its original public post, at the time and price it was posted. Only picks on games that have started are listed. See the methodology.

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