u/blackdogbetsLosing to the close
34 graded picks, first post Oct 5, 2025, latest Sep 28, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
−6.58u
32 priced picks
ROI
−20.5%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
13-20-1
Win rate 39.4%
CLV
−5.05%
95% interval −5.74% to −4.26%
Beat the fair close
3.7%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 34 | 13-20-1 | −20.5% | −5.05% | 3.7% | Losing to the close |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player props | 33 | 13-20-0 | −21.2% | −5.08% | 3.9% | Losing to the close |
| Spread | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0.0% | −4.21% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | D. Wicks over 41.5 rec yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −3.56% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ DEN | B. Corum over 47.5 rush yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −5.36% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLHOU @ IND | J. Downs over 49.5 rec yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 | Win | n/a | +0.88u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLTEN @ NYG | C. Ward under 176.5 pass yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −5.75% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ GB | C. Watson over 71.5 rec yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −5.75% | +0.89u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | C. Skattebo over 52.5 rush yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | A. Pierce over 44.5 rec yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −5.75% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ SF | K. Black over 37.5 rush yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of −106 | Loss | −2.92% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIN @ CHI | D. Swift over 61.5 rush yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +102 | Loss | −6.22% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ TEN | S. Barkley over 80.5 rush yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +102 | Loss | −7.19% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | D. Moore over 61.5 rec yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −117 | Loss | +0.71% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | T. Kelce over 41.5 rec yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 | Win | n/a | +0.89u |
| Sun Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ NYG | C. Skattebo over 49.5 rush yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −4.43% | +0.87u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ PHI | S. Barkley over 76.5 rush yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −6.14% | +0.88u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLTB @ CIN | J. Chase over 86.5 rec yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −6.52% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ HOU | D. Montgomery over 55.5 rush yds (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of −101 | Win | −4.51% | +0.90u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | K. Williams over 55.5 rush yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of +101 | Loss | −6.38% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | SEA −3 (−116) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −116 to a fair close of −106 | Push | −4.21% | 0.00u |
| Sun Jan 25, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ SEA | M. Stafford over 256.5 pass yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +102 | Win | −6.24% | +0.89u |
| Sun Jan 25, 3:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ DEN | H. Henry over 40.5 rec yds (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 to a fair close of −104 | Loss | −5.59% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CHI | D. Adams over 56.5 rec yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −4.50% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 18, 3:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLHOU @ NE | R. Stevenson over 39.5 rush yds (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of −110 | Win | −1.17% | +0.89u |
| Mon Jan 12, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLHOU @ PIT | C. Stroud over 224.5 pass yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 | Win | n/a | +0.89u |
| Sat Jan 10, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ CHI | C. Watson over 53.5 rec yds (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sat Jan 10, 4:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CAR | K. Williams over 68.5 rush yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −5.36% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 4, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ PIT | A. Rodgers over 200.5 pass yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 | Win | n/a | +0.88u |
| Sun Jan 4, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ NE | R. Stevenson over 32.5 rush yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −5.28% | +0.88u |
| Sun Jan 4, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ HOU | C. Stroud over 211.5 pass yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Sun Jan 4, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNO @ ATL | B. Robinson over 128.5 rush+rec yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −106 | Loss | −3.94% | −1.00u |
| Sat Jan 3, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ SF | G. Kittle over 61.5 rec yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −6.14% | −1.00u |
| Sat Jan 3, 4:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCAR @ TB | B. Mayfield over 15.5 rush yds (−116) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −116 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −4.81% | +0.86u |
| Thu Dec 25, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | T. Franklin over 35.5 rec yds (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −117 | Loss | −3.01% | −1.00u |
| Thu Dec 25, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ WSH | J. Williams over 72.5 rush yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +102 | Loss | −7.01% | −1.00u |
| Mon Dec 22, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ IND | G. Kittle over 66.5 rec yds (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of +102 | Win | −9.18% | +0.83u |
All 34 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.