u/Dr_MantlerayLosing to the close
68 graded picks, first post Feb 13, 2026, latest Jun 9, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
+4.50u
68 priced picks
ROI
+6.6%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
36-32-0
Win rate 52.9%
CLV
−4.17%
95% interval −7.47% to −0.70%
Beat the fair close
29.7%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 68 | 36-32-0 | +6.6% | −4.17% | 29.7% | Losing to the close |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player props | 61 | 34-27-0 | +12.6% | −4.12% | 29.8% | Losing to the close |
| Moneyline | 3 | 0-3-0 | −100.0% | −12.53% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Spread | 3 | 1-2-0 | −34.9% | +1.57% | 33.3% | Unranked |
| Team total | 1 | 1-0-0 | +89.3% | +1.05% | 100.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Jun 10, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ NY | L. Shamet over 9.5 pts (+164) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +164 to a fair close of +189 | Loss | −8.70% | −1.00u |
| Mon Jun 8, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ NY | J. Hart over 1.5 steals blocks (−107) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −107 to a fair close of +116 | Loss | −10.37% | −1.00u |
| Fri Jun 5, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBANY @ SA | NY TT Over 104.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −115 | Win | +1.05% | +0.89u |
| Sat May 30, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ OKC | A. Caruso over 11.5 pts (+127) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +127 to a fair close of +108 | Win | +9.04% | +1.27u |
| Tue May 26, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ OKC | D. Vassell over 0.5 blk (+134) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +134 to a fair close of +158 | Loss | −9.32% | −1.00u |
| Sun May 24, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAOKC @ SA | V. Wembanyama over 13.5 reb (−119) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −119 to a fair close of −106 | Loss | −5.42% | −1.00u |
| Fri May 22, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAOKC @ SA | C. Wallace over 1.5 stl (+113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +113 to a fair close of +120 | Win | −3.02% | +1.13u |
| Mon May 18, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ OKC | I. Hartenstein over 19.5 PRA (+111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +111 to a fair close of +140 | Loss | −12.08% | −1.00u |
| Sun May 17, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACLE @ DET | E. Mobley over 3.5 ast (+120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +120 to a fair close of −116 | Win | +18.07% | +1.20u |
| Fri May 15, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ MIN | D. Fox under 5.5 ast (−119) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −119 to a fair close of −101 | Loss | −7.56% | −1.00u |
| Wed May 13, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACLE @ DET | E. Mobley over 3.5 ast (+128) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +128 to a fair close of +133 | Win | −2.21% | +1.28u |
| Sat May 9, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAOKC @ LAL | C. Holmgren under 1.5 blk (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +117 | Win | −8.01% | +1.00u |
| Thu May 7, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACLE @ DET | J. Allen over 1.5 blk (+170) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +170 to a fair close of +200 | Loss | −9.99% | −1.00u |
| Wed May 6, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAMIN @ SA | S. Castle over 1.5 3PM (+127) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +127 to a fair close of +139 | Loss | −5.09% | −1.00u |
| Tue May 5, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBALAL @ OKC | R. Hachimura over 11.5 pts (−127) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −127 to a fair close of −127 | Win | +0.06% | +0.79u |
| Mon May 4, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPHI @ NY | O. Anunoby over 6.5 reb (−137) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −137 to a fair close of +148 | Loss | −30.25% | −1.00u |
| Sun May 3, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBATOR @ CLE | J. Allen over 1.5 blk (+159) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +159 to a fair close of +201 | Win | −13.99% | +1.59u |
| Sat May 2, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPHI @ BOS | P. Pritchard over 4.5 ast (+149) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +149 to a fair close of −132 | Win | +41.85% | +1.49u |
| Fri May 1, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBACLE @ TOR | J. Allen over 1.5 blk (+121) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +121 to a fair close of +192 | Win | −24.44% | +1.21u |
| Thu Apr 30, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBANY @ ATL | O. Anunoby over 7.5 reb (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +158 | Loss | −18.55% | −1.00u |
| Wed Apr 29, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAORL @ DET | W. Carter Jr. over 1.5 ast (−133) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −133 to a fair close of −135 | Win | +0.71% | +0.75u |
| Tue Apr 28, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAATL @ NY | O. Anunoby over 6.5 reb (+107) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +107 to a fair close of +125 | Win | −8.00% | +1.07u |
| Mon Apr 27, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAOKC @ PHX | O. Ighodaro over 3.5 ast (+127) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +127 to a fair close of +174 | Win | −17.02% | +1.27u |
| Sun Apr 26, 1:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACLE @ TOR | S. Barnes over 20.5 pts (−106) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −106 to a fair close of +120 | Win | −11.51% | +0.94u |
| Sat Apr 25, 6:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBANY @ ATL | O. Anunoby over 5.5 reb (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −101 | Win | −5.70% | +0.88u |
| Fri Apr 17, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBACHA @ ORL | CHA ML −170 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −170 to a fair close of −138 | Loss | −7.97% | −1.00u |
| Wed Apr 15, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAORL @ PHI | P. Banchero over 4.5 ast (−138) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −138 to a fair close of −144 | Loss | +1.90% | −1.00u |
| Tue Apr 14, 10:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPOR @ PHX | D. Booker over 1.5 stl (+184) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +184 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Apr 12, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASAC @ POR | D. Avdija over 40.5 PRA (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 to a fair close of −104 | Win | −5.59% | +0.85u |
| Fri Apr 10, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBANO @ BOS | N. Queta over 19.5 P+R (−134) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −134 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Thu Apr 9, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACHI @ WSH | C. Sexton over 3.5 reb (+116) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +116 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | +8.00% | −1.00u |
| Wed Apr 8, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPOR @ SA | D. Fox over 1.5 stl (+104) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +104 | Win | n/a | +1.04u |
| Tue Apr 7, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACHA @ BOS | J. Tatum over 36.5 PRA (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −101 | Loss | −4.93% | −1.00u |
| Mon Apr 6, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBADET @ ORL | DET ML −148 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −148 to a fair close of −104 | Loss | −14.60% | −1.00u |
| Sun Apr 5, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACHA @ MIN | C. White over 2.5 reb (−153) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −153 to a fair close of −132 | Loss | −5.80% | −1.00u |
| Sat Apr 4, 3:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ DEN | S. Castle over 13.5 R+A (−129) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −129 to a fair close of +114 | Win | −17.22% | +0.78u |
| Fri Apr 3, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAMIN @ PHI | R. Gobert over 11.5 reb (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +120 | Win | −9.00% | +1.00u |
| Thu Apr 2, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAMIN @ DET | D. Jenkins over 9.5 R+A (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −110 | Win | −7.13% | +0.77u |
| Wed Apr 1, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NBABOS @ MIA | J. Tatum over 8.5 reb (+104) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +104 to a fair close of −103 | Win | +3.37% | +1.04u |
| Tue Mar 31, 11:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPOR @ LAC | B. Lopez over 1.5 blk (+103) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +103 to a fair close of +132 | Win | −12.43% | +1.03u |
| Mon Mar 30, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACHI @ SA | S. Castle over 12.5 R+A (−131) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −131 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −7.88% | +0.76u |
| Sun Mar 29, 6:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAWSH @ POR | D. Clingan over 14.5 reb (+103) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +103 to a fair close of +163 | Loss | −22.89% | −1.00u |
| Sat Mar 28, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACHI @ MEM | J. Giddey over 10.5 ast (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −127 | Loss | +5.76% | −1.00u |
| Fri Mar 27, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAATL @ BOS | J. Tatum over 8.5 reb (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of −118 | Win | +2.86% | +0.90u |
| Wed Mar 25, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAOKC @ BOS | J. Brown over 37.5 PRA (−123) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −123 to a fair close of +168 | Win | −32.31% | +0.81u |
| Tue Mar 24, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBANO @ NY | J. Brunson over 6.5 ast (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −132 | Win | +7.80% | +0.89u |
| Mon Mar 23, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAMEM @ ATL | O. Okongwu over 20.5 P+R (−127) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −127 to a fair close of −214 | Win | +21.84% | +0.79u |
| Sun Mar 22, 6:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBABKN @ SAC | D. DeRozan over 19.5 pts (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 to a fair close of +133 | Loss | −20.50% | −1.00u |
| Sat Mar 21, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAMEM @ CHA | M. Diabate over 10.5 reb (+199) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +199 to a fair close of +103 | Win | +47.49% | +1.99u |
| Fri Mar 20, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPOR @ MIN | MIN ML −148 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −148 to a fair close of −103 | Loss | −15.01% | −1.00u |
All 68 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.