@dustinsaraciniLosing to the close
86 graded picks, first post Aug 2, 2026, latest Sep 30, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
−10.34u
85 priced picks
ROI
−12.2%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
41-44-1
Win rate 48.2%
CLV
−3.75%
95% interval −5.18% to −2.29%
Beat the fair close
18.5%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 46 | 25-21-0 | −1.8% | −4.34% | 14.6% | Losing to the close |
| MLB | 37 | 15-21-1 | −23.2% | −3.22% | 21.6% | Losing to the close |
| NHL | 3 | 1-2-0 | −31.7% | −2.28% | 33.3% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player props | 26 | 14-12-0 | −4.9% | −6.12% | 9.5% | Losing to the close |
| Moneyline | 24 | 11-13-0 | −16.4% | −1.39% | 20.8% | Not yet |
| Spread | 24 | 11-13-0 | −14.5% | −3.13% | 20.8% | Losing to the close |
| Total | 12 | 5-6-1 | −14.0% | −5.59% | 25.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Sep 30, 10:00 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHC @ SD | SD ML −143 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −143 to a fair close of −132 | Win | −3.25% | +0.70u |
| Wed Sep 30, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NHLNYI @ TOR | K. Marchenko over 2.5 SOG (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 to a fair close of +108 | Win | −1.39% | +1.05u |
| Tue Sep 29, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBOS @ NYY | BOS/NYY Under 6.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −118 | Loss | −0.06% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 29, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NHLMTL @ TOR | G. McKenna over 0.5 pts (+130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +130 to a fair close of +127 | Loss | +1.49% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 29, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NHLMTL @ TOR | TOR ML −108 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of +107 | Loss | −6.94% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 29, 2:00 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ ATL | PHI/ATL F5 Under 3.5 (−121) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −121 to a fair close of −116 | Win | −1.92% | +0.83u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | D. Swift over 14.5 rush att (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −120 | Win | −1.96% | +0.80u |
| Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ CHI | PHI −3.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +108 | Loss | −8.42% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ DEN | LAR −1.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +110 | Loss | −6.92% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLV @ NO | NO −3.5 (−103) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −103 to a fair close of −104 | Loss | +0.44% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIN @ TB | TB +1.5 (−119) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −119 to a fair close of −107 | Loss | −4.79% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLKC @ MIA | T. Kelce over 49.5 rec yds (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 | Win | n/a | +0.74u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYJ @ DET | DET −6.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −108 | Win | −2.74% | +0.87u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLKC @ MIA | KC −9.5 (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −6.90% | +0.82u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ JAX | NE/JAX Under 47.5 (−139) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −139 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −10.98% | +0.72u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAC @ BUF | LAC/BUF Over 50.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +103 | Loss | −3.74% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ JAX | NE/JAX Under 44.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +144 | Win | −20.13% | +0.95u |
| Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ JAX | JAX −2.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −122 | Win | +1.57% | +0.85u |
| Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ GB | B. Robinson over 4.5 rec (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −110 | Loss | −3.88% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ GB | GB −4.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −103 | Loss | −5.17% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 23, 1:36 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTOR @ BAL | TOR/BAL Over 7.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of +125 | Loss | −18.50% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | LAR −6.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −2.30% | +0.87u |
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | M. Stafford over 234.5 pass yds (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 | Win | n/a | +0.80u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | KC −5.5 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −6.14% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | K. Walker III over 79.5 rush yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 | Win | n/a | +0.87u |
| Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ KC | K. Walker III anytime TD (−190) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −190 to a fair close of −176 | Loss | −2.62% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ ARI | J. Price over 62.5 rush yds (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 to a fair close of −101 | Loss | −6.64% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ SF | D. Samuel Sr. over 33.5 rec yds (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ SF | C. McCaffrey anytime TD (−215) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −215 to a fair close of −213 | Win | −0.31% | +0.47u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ DAL | C. Lamb anytime TD (+115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +115 to a fair close of +130 | Win | −6.35% | +1.15u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLJAX @ DEN | JAX +3.5 (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 to a fair close of −140 | Loss | +19.53% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLV @ LAC | O. Hampton anytime TD (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −7.65% | +0.77u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIN @ CHI | MIN/CHI Under 48.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −134 | Win | +9.24% | +0.91u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCAR @ ATL | CAR −2.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of +101 | Win | −8.77% | +0.83u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ TEN | PHI −6.5 (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | −7.75% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCAR @ ATL | B. Robinson anytime TD (−210) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −210 to a fair close of −141 | Loss | −13.55% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNO @ BAL | D. Henry anytime TD (−240) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −240 to a fair close of −174 | Win | −10.10% | +0.42u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ TEN | J. Hurts anytime TD (+145) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +145 to a fair close of +161 | Loss | −6.07% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ TEN | S. Barkley anytime TD (−140) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −140 to a fair close of −107 | Loss | −11.50% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 18, 8:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTOR @ TEX | B. Bateman over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −114 | Loss | −4.04% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 18, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBDET @ CHW | DET/CHW Over 8.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +112 | Win | −9.89% | +0.91u |
| Fri Sep 18, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBOS @ TB | TB ML −135 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −124 | Loss | −3.59% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | J. Goff over 254.5 pass yds (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −4.22% | +0.83u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | DET +5.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −104 | Loss | −0.34% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | DET +6 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −118 | Loss | +1.02% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | J. Goff over 263.5 pass yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Win | n/a | n/a |
| Tue Sep 15, 6:45 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPHI @ WSH | PHI −1.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −114 | Loss | −2.33% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | KC −2.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −6.76% | +0.91u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ LV | M. Willis over 179.5 pass yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −5.27% | +0.88u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCLE @ JAX | JAX −8.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −5.36% | +0.89u |
All 86 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.