u/muddycleats92Losing to the close
305 graded picks, first post Sep 30, 2025, latest Sep 21, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
+25.17u
249 priced picks
ROI
+10.1%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
156-149-0
Win rate 51.1%
CLV
−5.12%
95% interval −5.83% to −4.39%
Beat the fair close
7.5%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 244 | 130-114-0 | +20.1% | −5.19% | 6.7% | Losing to the close |
| NCAAF | 56 | 25-31-0 | −22.8% | −4.99% | 6.8% | Losing to the close |
| WNBA | 5 | 1-4-0 | −66.2% | −3.43% | 50.0% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player props | 250 | 124-126-0 | +10.5% | −5.41% | 7.6% | Losing to the close |
| Spread | 36 | 21-15-0 | +8.3% | −4.07% | 5.6% | Losing to the close |
| Moneyline | 10 | 7-3-0 | +32.8% | −3.50% | 20.0% | Unranked |
| Total | 8 | 4-4-0 | −5.3% | −5.99% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Team total | 1 | 0-1-0 | −100.0% | −4.78% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYG @ LAR | D. Adams anytime TD (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −101 | Win | −7.91% | +0.83u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ SF | C. McCaffrey over 57.5 rush yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ DAL | WSH/DAL Over 50.5 (−119) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −119 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −5.01% | +0.84u |
| Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLJAX @ DEN | B. Nix over 220.5 pass yds (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −4.07% | +0.90u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCAR @ ATL | K. Pitts over 3.5 rec (+105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 to a fair close of +121 | Loss | −7.42% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPIT @ NE | R. Doubs over 37.5 rec yds (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −113 | Win | +0.31% | +0.89u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCLE @ TB | B. Irving over 61.5 rush yds (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −4.55% | +0.91u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIN @ CHI | J. Addison over 33.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ TEN | M. Lemon over 2.5 rec (−126) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −126 to a fair close of −107 | Loss | −7.40% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCIN @ HOU | X. Hutchinson over 26.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Win | n/a | n/a |
| Sat Sep 19, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFLSU @ MISS | LSU ML −110 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −131 | Loss | +8.35% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ BUF | S. Vaki over 4.5 rush yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 | Win | n/a | +0.88u |
| Mon Sep 14, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | A. Trautman over 2.5 rec (+950) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +950 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 14, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | A. Trautman over 1.5 rec (+300) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +300 to a fair close of +291 | Win | +2.41% | +3.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ LV | C. Bell over 17.5 rec yds (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −113 | Win | −0.52% | +0.88u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ MIN | MIN ML −129 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −129 to a fair close of −134 | Win | +1.58% | +0.78u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ MIN | J. Mason over 41.5 rush yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Win | n/a | n/a |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ PHI | T. Bigsby over 17.5 rush yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −6.52% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ PHI | S. Barkley under 18.5 rush att (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Win | n/a | n/a |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ PIT | J. Warren over 2.5 rec (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −122 | Win | −4.18% | +0.74u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ HOU | D. Montgomery over 9.5 rec yds (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −120 | Win | −5.18% | +0.74u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCLE @ JAX | JAX −7.5 (−132) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −132 to a fair close of −112 | Win | −7.17% | +0.76u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYJ @ TEN | M. Taylor over 19.5 rec yds (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −6.28% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLTB @ CIN | C. Brown over 23.5 rec yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −118 | Loss | +1.34% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLTB @ CIN | J. Burrow over 267.5 pass yds (−116) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −116 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFOSU @ TEX | TEX ML −120 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −119 | Win | −0.36% | +0.83u |
| Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFOU @ MICH | OU −4.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −3.63% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 11, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFMIZ @ KU | MIZ/KU Under 51 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of +113 | Loss | −10.10% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 11, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFRUTG @ BC | BC ML −150 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −150 to a fair close of −139 | Win | −3.11% | +0.67u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | M. Evans over 50 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | D. Adams over 50.5 rec yds (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | T. Ferguson over 23.5 rec yds (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −6.52% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | B. Corum over 44.5 rush yds (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of +114 | Win | −10.59% | +0.92u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | D. Douglas over 2.5 rec (+180) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +180 to a fair close of +159 | Win | +7.96% | +1.80u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | D. Douglas over 1.5 rec (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −166 | Win | +10.53% | +0.77u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | NE +3.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −4.53% | +0.83u |
| Sun Sep 6, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFLOU @ MISS | I. Brown over 68.5 rush yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Loss | n/a | n/a |
| Sun Sep 6, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFLOU @ MISS | LOU +7 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −5.51% | +0.85u |
| Sat Sep 5, 10:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUCLA @ CAL | CAL +2.5 (−102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −102 to a fair close of +107 | Loss | −4.52% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCLEM @ LSU | LSU −9.5 (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −2.60% | +0.89u |
| Sat Sep 5, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCLEM @ LSU | CLEM/LSU Under 51.5 (−150) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −150 to a fair close of −138 | Loss | −3.43% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFWMU @ MICH | S. Hiter over 49.5 rush yds (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | −5.96% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFBAY @ AUB | AUB −6.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −107 | Loss | −4.33% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFM-OH @ PITT | PITT −16.5 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −3.21% | +0.92u |
| Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFUNT @ IU | IU 1H −23.5 (−116) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −116 to a fair close of −111 | Loss | −2.17% | −1.00u |
| Fri Sep 4, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFSJSU @ EMU | SJSU/EMU Over 55.5 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +105 | Loss | −8.32% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 3, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFCOLO @ GT | COLO +7.5 (−148) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −148 to a fair close of −135 | Win | −3.66% | +0.68u |
| Thu Sep 3, 6:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFMASS @ RUTG | RUTG −27.5 (−144) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −144 to a fair close of −128 | Loss | −4.94% | −1.00u |
| Sun Aug 30, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | WNBAGS @ POR | B. Carleton over 2.5 ast (+130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +130 to a fair close of +130 | Loss | +0.08% | −1.00u |
| Sat Aug 29, 3:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAAFSJSU @ USC | USC −38.5 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of −101 | Loss | −3.68% | −1.00u |
All 305 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.