Reddit · 8 graded picks

u/nowitzki535Unranked

First post Sep 2, 2026, latest Sep 18, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.

u/nowitzki535 (opens in a new tab)

Net units (1u flat)

−0.57u

8 priced picks

ROI

−7.1%

Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks

Record

4-4-0

Win rate 50.0%

CLV

−3.11%

95% interval −4.69% to −1.56%

Beat fair close

0.0%

Share of priced picks that beat the fair close

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Cumulative units (1u flat)

Now −0.57u, peak +1.43u

Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.

By sport

By sport
Sport	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
MLB	8	4-4-0	−7.1%	−3.11%	0.0%	Unranked

By market

By market
Market	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
Moneyline	8	4-4-0	−7.1%	−3.11%	0.0%	Unranked

Graded picks

8 graded, newest game first. Each links to the original public post. All picks so far are reconstructed from public posts.

u/nowitzki535: graded picks
Game (ET)	Sport	Pick	Taken, fair close	Result	CLV	Units
Sep 19, 2:11 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	DET ML +115 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · DET @ CHW	+115 to a fair close of +117	Loss	−0.72%	−1.00u
Sep 18, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	CHC ML −143 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · CHC @ CIN	−143 to a fair close of −141	Loss	−0.49%	−1.00u
Sep 16, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	MIL ML −137 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · MIL @ PIT	−137 to a fair close of −122	Win	−5.07%	+0.73u
Sep 15, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	BAL ML +110 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · BAL @ NYM	+110 to a fair close of +122	Win	−5.45%	+1.10u
Sep 12, 2:21 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	CHC ML −125 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · PIT @ CHC	−125 to a fair close of −116	Win	−3.51%	+0.80u
Sep 5, 6:06 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	ATL ML +135 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · ATL @ PHI	+135 to a fair close of +151	Loss	−6.35%	−1.00u
Sep 4, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	CHW ML −125 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · MIN @ CHW	−125 to a fair close of −117	Win	−3.12%	+0.80u
Sep 3, 7:15 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	MIL ML −115 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · MIL @ CHC	−115 to a fair close of −115	Loss	−0.18%	−1.00u

Each pick was reconstructed from its original public post, at the time and price it was posted. Only picks on games that have started are listed. See the methodology.

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