Reddit · 4 graded picks

u/placidpatUnranked

First post Jul 24, 2026, latest Jul 26, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.

u/placidpat (opens in a new tab)

Net units (1u flat)

+0.81u

4 priced picks

ROI

+20.2%

Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks

Record

2-2-0

Win rate 50.0%

CLV

−2.81%

95% interval −11.43% to +4.50%

Beat fair close

50.0%

Share of priced picks that beat the fair close

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Cumulative units (1u flat)

Now +0.81u, peak +1.90u

Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.

By sport

By sport
Sport	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
MLB	4	2-2-0	+20.2%	−2.81%	50.0%	Unranked

By market

By market
Market	Picks	Record	ROI	CLV	Beat fair close	Status
Moneyline	1	1-0-0	+190.0%	−16.60%	0.0%	Unranked
Player props	1	0-1-0	−100.0%	+4.07%	100.0%	Unranked
Spread	1	0-1-0	−100.0%	+4.94%	100.0%	Unranked
Total	1	1-0-0	+90.9%	−3.63%	0.0%	Unranked

Graded picks

4 graded, newest game first. Each links to the original public post. All picks so far are reconstructed from public posts.

u/placidpat: graded picks
Game (ET)	Sport	Pick	Taken, fair close	Result	CLV	Units
Jul 27, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	PHI −1.5 (+104) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · PHI @ MIA	+104 to a fair close of −106	Loss	+4.94%	−1.00u
Jul 26, 7:21 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	NYY/PHI Over 8 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · NYY @ PHI	−110 to a fair close of −102	Win	−3.63%	+0.91u
Jul 25, 4:11 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	E. Perez over 6.5 Ks (+154) (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · SD @ MIA	+154 to a fair close of +144	Loss	+4.07%	−1.00u
Jul 24, 4:11 PM ETReconstructed	MLB	COL ML +190 (original post, opens in a new tab)MLB · COL @ MIL	+190 to a fair close of +248	Win	−16.60%	+1.90u

Each pick was reconstructed from its original public post, at the time and price it was posted. Only picks on games that have started are listed. See the methodology.

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