u/Seventh__PlaceLosing to the close
31 graded picks, first post Oct 19, 2025, latest Mar 1, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
+3.10u
31 priced picks
ROI
+10.0%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
18-13-0
Win rate 58.1%
CLV
−4.10%
95% interval −6.89% to −0.76%
Beat the fair close
29.0%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAB | 22 | 11-11-0 | −4.7% | −3.71% | 36.4% | Not yet |
| NBA | 9 | 7-2-0 | +45.9% | −5.04% | 11.1% | Unranked |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 16 | 9-7-0 | +6.6% | −3.81% | 37.5% | Unranked |
| Player props | 7 | 5-2-0 | +32.4% | −3.36% | 14.3% | Unranked |
| Total | 5 | 3-2-0 | +14.6% | −3.05% | 40.0% | Unranked |
| Team total | 2 | 0-2-0 | −100.0% | −7.52% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Moneyline | 1 | 1-0-0 | +105.0% | −12.30% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Mar 2, 6:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABNORF @ MORG | NORF −2.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −126 | Loss | +6.58% | −1.00u |
| Sun Feb 15, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABDEN @ OMA | DEN/OMA Over 159.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of −108 | Loss | −0.18% | −1.00u |
| Sat Feb 7, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBACHA @ ATL | B. Miller over 21.5 pts (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of −104 | Loss | −2.00% | −1.00u |
| Fri Feb 6, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABCONN @ SJU | CONN −1.5 (−104) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −104 to a fair close of −106 | Loss | +0.85% | −1.00u |
| Thu Feb 5, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABWVU @ CIN | WVU +5.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of −104 | Win | −1.89% | +0.93u |
| Wed Feb 4, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABUPST @ UNCA | UPST/UNCA Over 140.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +106 | Win | −9.09% | +0.87u |
| Tue Feb 3, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAUTAH @ IND | I. Collier over 12.5 pts (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −194 | Win | +18.85% | +0.80u |
| Sun Feb 1, 2:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABECU @ FAU | FAU −11.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +121 | Loss | −14.52% | −1.00u |
| Sat Jan 31, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABNCSU @ WAKE | NCSU −5.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −8.93% | +0.87u |
| Wed Jan 28, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABRICE @ ECU | RICE ML +105 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +105 to a fair close of +134 | Win | −12.30% | +1.05u |
| Wed Jan 28, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABRICE @ ECU | RICE +2.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −3.65% | +0.91u |
| Wed Jan 28, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABRICE @ ECU | RICE +1.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +120 | Win | −13.17% | +0.91u |
| Tue Jan 27, 9:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABCREI @ MARQ | CREI −1.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −103 | Loss | −6.14% | −1.00u |
| Mon Jan 26, 6:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABLEM @ FDU | LEM −1.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +102 | Win | −5.43% | +0.91u |
| Wed Jan 21, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABWCU @ MER | MER −9.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −10.46% | +0.83u |
| Mon Jan 19, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBABOS @ DET | D. White over 17.5 pts (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of +105 | Loss | −12.02% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 18, 12:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABPSU @ MD | PSU/MD Under 147.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of −114 | Loss | +2.57% | −1.00u |
| Sat Jan 17, 2:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABIOWA @ IU | IU 1H −0.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −125 | Loss | +2.01% | −1.00u |
| Fri Jan 16, 8:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABMARQ @ DEP | MARQ/DEP Over 142.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −139 | Win | +10.92% | +0.91u |
| Thu Jan 15, 2:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAMEM @ ORL | ORL −5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −2.33% | +0.91u |
| Wed Jan 14, 6:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABETSU @ WCU | ETSU −6.5 (−102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −102 to a fair close of −107 | Loss | +2.47% | −1.00u |
| Mon Jan 12, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBABOS @ IND | BOS/IND Under 223.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +142 | Win | −19.49% | +0.95u |
| Sun Jan 11, 3:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBANO @ ORL | A. Black over 18.5 pts (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −108 | Win | −2.32% | +0.88u |
| Fri Jan 9, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABMRST @ SHU | MRST −6.5 (−107) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −107 to a fair close of +125 | Loss | −14.20% | −1.00u |
| Fri Jan 9, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABMRST @ SHU | SHU 1H TT Under 32.5 (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −7.96% | −1.00u |
| Fri Jan 9, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABMRST @ SHU | SHU 1H TT Under 31.5 (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of +105 | Loss | −7.08% | −1.00u |
| Thu Jan 8, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABNDSU @ KC | NDSU −9.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of −108 | Win | +1.51% | +0.95u |
| Tue Jan 6, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACLE @ IND | A. Nembhard over 25.5 P+A (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −9.02% | +0.82u |
| Mon Jan 5, 7:00 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABW&M @ COFC | COFC −1.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −138 | Win | +6.39% | +0.83u |
| Sun Jan 4, 3:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAIND @ ORL | A. Nembhard over 25.5 P+A (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +109 | Win | −9.60% | +0.89u |
| Fri Jan 2, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBACHA @ MIL | G. Antetokounmpo over 34.5 P+A (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of +103 | Win | −7.40% | +0.88u |
All 31 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.