@thepmeLosing to the close
33 graded picks, first post Aug 2, 2026, latest Sep 9, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
−2.05u
32 priced picks
ROI
−6.4%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
17-16-0
Win rate 51.5%
CLV
−4.08%
95% interval −4.69% to −3.40%
Beat the fair close
21.9%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 33 | 17-16-0 | −6.4% | −4.08% | 21.9% | Losing to the close |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 30 | 14-16-0 | −11.8% | −4.16% | 23.3% | Losing to the close |
| Player props | 2 | 2-0-0 | +61.7% | −0.89% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Total | 1 | 1-0-0 | +88.5% | −4.88% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | KC −2.5 (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −9.42% | +0.85u |
| Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | DEN +2.5 (−103) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −103 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | +0.83% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ NYG | NYG +1 (+125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +125 to a fair close of +149 | Win | −9.46% | +1.25u |
| Sun Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ NYG | DAL −2.5 (−119) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −119 to a fair close of −128 | Loss | +3.38% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLARI @ LAC | LAC −10 (−102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −102 to a fair close of +121 | Loss | −10.22% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ PHI | WSH +4.5 (−107) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −107 to a fair close of +117 | Win | −10.65% | +0.93u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ MIN | MIN −1 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −127 | Win | +4.90% | +0.88u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLARI @ LAC | ARI +10 (−121) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −121 to a fair close of −121 | Win | −0.15% | +0.83u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLWSH @ PHI | PHI −4.5 (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of −117 | Loss | +1.43% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ MIN | GB +1 (−102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −102 to a fair close of +127 | Loss | −12.63% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ LV | MIA +3.5 (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of −119 | Loss | +2.25% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLTB @ CIN | CIN −3.5 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of −101 | Win | −5.03% | +0.89u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ IND | BAL −3 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of +111 | Win | −13.32% | +0.83u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYJ @ TEN | TEN −2 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +117 | Loss | −9.84% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ HOU | HOU +1 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −103 | Loss | −2.94% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCLE @ JAX | CLE +7.5 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +112 | Loss | −5.64% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCHI @ CAR | CAR +2.5 (+114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +114 to a fair close of +116 | Loss | −0.71% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ PIT | PIT −3 (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −192 | Win | +18.30% | +0.80u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ HOU | BUF −1 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +103 | Win | −6.15% | +0.91u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCLE @ JAX | JAX −7.5 (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −112 | Win | −4.92% | +0.80u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLCHI @ CAR | CHI −2.5 (−128) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −128 to a fair close of −116 | Win | −4.52% | +0.78u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ PIT | ATL +3 (+102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +102 to a fair close of +192 | Loss | −30.76% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ IND | IND +3 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of −111 | Loss | +5.43% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNYJ @ TEN | NYJ +2 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −117 | Win | −1.33% | +0.83u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNO @ DET | DET −6.5 (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −108 | Loss | −5.65% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLTB @ CIN | TB +3.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of +101 | Loss | −4.04% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | LAR −3.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −104 | Loss | −4.72% | −1.00u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | SF +3.5 (−102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −102 to a fair close of +104 | Win | −2.89% | +0.98u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | C. Parkinson under 2.5 rec (−162) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −162 to a fair close of −158 | Win | −0.89% | +0.62u |
| Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSF @ LAR | G. Kittle under 40.5 rec yds (original post, opens in a new tab) | unpriced | Win | n/a | n/a |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | SEA −3.5 (+100) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +100 to a fair close of +109 | Loss | −4.15% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | NE/SEA Under 44.5 (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −4.88% | +0.89u |
| Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ SEA | NE +3.5 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −2.24% | +0.88u |
All 33 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.