u/WaterFluid3708Losing to the close
91 graded picks, first post Sep 30, 2025, latest Sep 13, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
−17.04u
91 priced picks
ROI
−18.7%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
38-51-2
Win rate 42.7%
CLV
−3.43%
95% interval −4.55% to −2.32%
Beat the fair close
22.0%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 70 | 30-38-2 | −15.9% | −3.21% | 25.7% | Losing to the close |
| NCAAB | 21 | 8-13-0 | −28.2% | −4.18% | 9.5% | Losing to the close |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 82 | 34-46-2 | −19.1% | −3.37% | 21.9% | Losing to the close |
| Total | 5 | 3-2-0 | +14.4% | −2.78% | 40.0% | Unranked |
| Moneyline | 3 | 1-2-0 | −36.4% | −4.50% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Player props | 1 | 0-1-0 | −100.0% | −9.13% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ LV | MIA +3 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of +102 | Loss | −4.63% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLARI @ LAC | ARI +9 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +101 | Win | −5.19% | +0.91u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBAL @ IND | IND +3 (−106) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −106 to a fair close of −111 | Loss | +2.45% | −1.00u |
| Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLATL @ PIT | ATL +6.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −2.25% | −1.00u |
| Thu Mar 26, 9:45 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABARK @ ARIZ | ARK +8.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −6.77% | −1.00u |
| Thu Mar 26, 7:30 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABIOWA @ NEB | IOWA +2.5 (−130) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −130 to a fair close of −113 | Win | −5.95% | +0.77u |
| Thu Mar 26, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABTEX @ PUR | PUR −7.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −125 | Loss | +3.73% | −1.00u |
| Sun Mar 22, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABIOWA @ FLA | IOWA +10.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −6.52% | +0.87u |
| Sun Mar 22, 5:15 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABSJU @ KU | KU +3.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −103 | Win | −2.94% | +0.91u |
| Sun Mar 22, 2:45 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABUK @ ISU | UK +5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −4.55% | −1.00u |
| Sat Mar 21, 9:45 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABHPU @ ARK | ARK −12 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −3.63% | −1.00u |
| Sat Mar 21, 7:50 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABVCU @ ILL | VCU +11 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of +122 | Loss | −13.47% | −1.00u |
| Sat Mar 21, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABTEX @ GONZ | GONZ −6.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of +102 | Loss | −4.60% | −1.00u |
| Sat Mar 21, 6:10 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABTA&M @ HOU | HOU −10 (−112) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −112 to a fair close of +104 | Win | −7.18% | +0.89u |
| Sat Mar 21, 5:15 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABTCU @ DUKE | TCU +12.5 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −3.64% | −1.00u |
| Fri Mar 20, 10:10 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABMIZ @ MIA | MIZ +2 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −102 | Loss | −3.44% | −1.00u |
| Fri Mar 20, 9:45 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABCal Baptist Lancers @ KU | KU −14 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +102 | Loss | −5.46% | −1.00u |
| Fri Mar 20, 7:25 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABUCF @ UCLA | UCF +5.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +100 | Win | −4.55% | +0.91u |
| Fri Mar 20, 6:50 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABIOWA @ CLEM | CLEM +2 (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of −108 | Loss | −1.33% | −1.00u |
| Fri Mar 20, 4:10 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABUSU @ VILL | USU −1.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −104 | Win | −2.77% | +0.91u |
| Fri Mar 20, 12:40 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABAKR @ TTU | AKR +7.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −116 | Loss | +2.53% | −1.00u |
| Thu Mar 19, 10:10 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABIDHO @ HOU | IDHO +24.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −4.35% | −1.00u |
| Thu Mar 19, 7:35 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABTA&M @ SMC | SMC −2.5 (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −3.50% | −1.00u |
| Wed Mar 18, 9:15 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABM-OH @ SMU | M-OH +7 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −104 | Win | −2.53% | +0.91u |
| Tue Mar 17, 9:15 PM ETReconstructed | NCAABNCSU @ TEX | TEX ML −110 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −6.83% | +0.91u |
| Sun Feb 8, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ NE | SEA/NE Under 45.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −2.33% | +0.91u |
| Sun Feb 8, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ NE | NE +4.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −2.38% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 25, 6:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ SEA | SEA −2.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +104 | Win | −4.26% | +0.95u |
| Mon Jan 12, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLHOU @ PIT | PIT +3.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −133 | Loss | +5.37% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 11, 8:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAC @ NE | LAC +3.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −4.55% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 11, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ JAX | JAX ML −122 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −118 | Loss | −1.48% | −1.00u |
| Sat Jan 10, 4:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAR @ CAR | CAR +10.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −102 | Win | −7.48% | +0.83u |
| Sun Jan 4, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLLAC @ DEN | LAC +14 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +128 | Loss | −16.14% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 4, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLTEN @ JAX | TEN +12.5 (−113) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −113 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −5.75% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 4, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDAL @ NYG | NYG +4 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −128 | Win | +7.23% | +0.91u |
| Sun Jan 4, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLGB @ MIN | GB +12.5 (−108) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −108 to a fair close of +103 | Loss | −5.26% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jan 4, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNO @ ATL | NO +4.5 (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 to a fair close of −108 | Win | −3.73% | +0.85u |
| Sun Dec 28, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLSEA @ CAR | CAR +7.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −130 | Loss | +3.70% | −1.00u |
| Sun Dec 28, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ NYJ | NYJ +14 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −123 | Loss | +3.16% | −1.00u |
| Sun Dec 28, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLTB @ MIA | TB ML −270 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −270 to a fair close of −225 | Loss | −5.19% | −1.00u |
| Thu Dec 25, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDEN @ KC | KC +13 (−109) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −109 to a fair close of +111 | Win | −9.12% | +0.92u |
| Thu Dec 25, 4:30 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ MIN | MIN +7.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −110 | Win | −1.87% | +0.87u |
| Sun Dec 21, 8:20 PM ETReconstructed | NFLNE @ BAL | NE +3.5 (−116) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −116 to a fair close of +105 | Win | −9.14% | +0.86u |
| Sun Dec 21, 4:05 PM ETReconstructed | NFLJAX @ DEN | JAX +3.5 (−115) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −107 | Win | −3.17% | +0.87u |
| Sun Dec 21, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLBUF @ CLE | BUF/CLE Under 42 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −112 | Loss | +0.82% | −1.00u |
| Sat Dec 20, 5:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLPHI @ WSH | WSH +7 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of +104 | Loss | −6.54% | −1.00u |
| Mon Dec 15, 8:15 PM ETReconstructed | NFLMIA @ PIT | MIA +3.5 (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −107 | Loss | −5.38% | −1.00u |
| Sun Dec 14, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLDET @ LAR | DET +6 (−111) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −111 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −2.67% | −1.00u |
| Sun Dec 14, 4:25 PM ETReconstructed | NFLIND @ SEA | IND +13.5 (−110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −110 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −2.33% | +0.91u |
| Sun Dec 14, 1:00 PM ETReconstructed | NFLARI @ HOU | ARI +9.5 (−105) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −105 to a fair close of +112 | Loss | −8.11% | −1.00u |
All 91 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.