The Hooded Sharp

Polymarket · 14 graded picks

sainttroplayUnranked

First post Aug 15, 2026, latest Sep 5, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.

Net units (1u flat)

+7.49u

14 priced picks

ROI

+53.5%

Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks

Record

10-4-0

Win rate 71.4%

CLV

−1.29%

95% interval −2.44% to −0.18%

Beat fair close

28.6%

Share of priced picks that beat the fair close

Open picks are for members

Records are free. Members see today's board: every pick, how many cappers are on it, and who.

Cumulative units (1u flat)

Now +7.49u, peak +8.49u

Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.

By sport

By sport
SportPicksRecordROICLVBeat fair closeStatus
Soccer117-4-0+34.0%−1.38%27.3%Unranked
Premier League22-0-0+102.3%−2.09%0.0%Unranked
Bundesliga11-0-0+169.9%+1.20%100.0%Unranked

By market

By market
MarketPicksRecordROICLVBeat fair closeStatus
Moneyline63-3-0+14.6%−1.08%33.3%Unranked
Spread33-0-0+124.8%−0.99%33.3%Unranked
Total33-0-0+79.7%−0.53%33.3%Unranked
Other21-1-0+23.7%−3.55%0.0%Unranked

Graded picks

14 graded, newest game first. Each links to the original public post. All picks so far are reconstructed from public posts.

sainttroplay: graded picks
Game (ET)SportPickTaken, fair closeResultCLVUnits
Sep 5, 12:30 PM ETReconstructedSoccerFC Schalke 04 leading at halftime: Yes at 11¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · S04 vs BAY11¢ to a fair close of 10.5¢Loss−4.84%−1.00u
Sep 5, 12:30 PM ETReconstructedSoccerFC Bayern München leading at halftime: No at 40.4¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · S04 vs BAY40.4¢ to a fair close of 39.5¢Win−2.25%+1.47u
Sep 5, 12:30 PM ETReconstructedSoccerSchalke +1.5 at 37.1¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · S04 vs BAY37.1¢ to a fair close of 37.5¢Win+1.20%+1.70u
Sep 5, 12:00 PM ETReconstructedSoccerInter Milan/Napoli Over 2.5 at 53.2¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · Inter Milan vs Napoli53.2¢ to a fair close of 52.5¢Win−1.23%+0.88u
Sep 5, 10:00 AM ETReconstructedSoccerCoventry +1.5 at 40.9¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · MAC vs COV40.9¢ to a fair close of 40.5¢Win−0.89%+1.45u
Sep 5, 10:00 AM ETReconstructedSoccerCoventry +2.5 at 62.6¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · MAC vs COV62.6¢ to a fair close of 60.5¢Win−3.29%+0.60u
Sep 4, 3:00 PM ETReconstructedSoccerLiverpool to win: No at 39.2¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · Ipswich vs Liverpool39.2¢ to a fair close of 40.5¢Loss+3.37%−1.00u
Sep 4, 3:00 PM ETReconstructedSoccerIpswich ML at 18.7¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · Ipswich vs Liverpool18.7¢ to a fair close of 18.5¢Loss−1.23%−1.00u
Aug 17, 3:00 PM ETReconstructedSoccerRC Deportivo A Coruña/Elche Under 2.5 at 60.2¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · RC Deportivo A Coruña vs Elche60.2¢ to a fair close of 59.5¢Win−1.18%+0.66u
Aug 16, 11:00 AM ETReconstructedSoccerVillarreal ML at 50.3¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · RRC vs VIL50.3¢ to a fair close of 50.5¢Loss+0.34%−1.00u
Aug 16, 10:00 AM ETReconstructedSoccerManchester City to win: No at 65.1¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · Arsenal vs Manchester City65.1¢ to a fair close of 64.5¢Win−0.89%+0.54u
Aug 16, 10:00 AM ETReconstructedSoccerArsenal ML at 36.2¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · Arsenal vs Manchester City36.2¢ to a fair close of 34.5¢Win−4.63%+1.76u
Aug 16, 10:00 AM ETReconstructedSoccerArsenal/Manchester City Over 2.5 at 54.1¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · Arsenal vs Manchester City54.1¢ to a fair close of 54.5¢Win+0.81%+0.85u
Aug 15, 3:30 PM ETReconstructedSoccerSevilla ML at 38.8¢ (original post, opens in a new tab)Soccer · SEV vs RAY38.8¢ to a fair close of 37.5¢Win−3.43%+1.58u

Each pick was reconstructed from its original public post, at the time and price it was posted. Only picks on games that have started are listed. See the methodology.

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