u/Bet_On_Smurf85Losing to the close
307 graded picks, first post Oct 1, 2025, latest Sep 27, 2026. Every pick is graded at the price it was posted and against the closing line.
Units won, flat 1u
−111.45u
306 priced picks
ROI
−36.4%
Flat 1-unit stake, priced picks
Record
108-199-0
Win rate 35.2%
CLV
−6.46%
95% interval −7.17% to −5.75%
Beat the fair close
5.1%
Share of priced picks above the no-vig close
Flat 1 unit on every graded pick, in game order. An unpriced pick adds nothing.
| Sport | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 269 | 93-176-0 | −37.4% | −6.51% | 5.4% | Losing to the close |
| MLB | 38 | 15-23-0 | −29.2% | −6.12% | 2.8% | Losing to the close |
| Market | Picks | Record | ROI | CLV | Beat fair close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player props | 293 | 103-190-0 | −36.2% | −6.60% | 5.3% | Losing to the close |
| Moneyline | 9 | 4-5-0 | −27.7% | −3.15% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Total | 3 | 0-3-0 | −100.0% | −3.73% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Team total | 2 | 1-1-0 | −15.5% | −5.79% | 0.0% | Unranked |
| Game (ET) | Sport | Pick | Taken, fair close | Result | CLV | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27, 1:35 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYM @ WSH | B. House over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+103) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +103 to a fair close of +120 | Win | −7.57% | +1.03u |
| Thu Sep 24, 2:36 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYM @ TEX | B. Baty over 0.5 H+R+RBI (−155) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −155 | Win | n/a | +0.65u |
| Thu Sep 24, 2:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ KC | C. Jensen over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−117) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −117 to a fair close of +102 | Loss | −8.27% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 22, 8:05 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYM @ TEX | J. Burger over 0.5 HR (+335) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +335 to a fair close of +486 | Loss | −25.74% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 22, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ KC | M. Vargas over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−135) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −135 to a fair close of −120 | Win | −5.18% | +0.74u |
| Tue Sep 22, 6:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBWSH @ DET | E. Valencia over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−122) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −122 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −6.98% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 19, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIA @ SD | SD TT Over 3.5 (−145) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −145 to a fair close of −132 | Win | −3.96% | +0.69u |
| Thu Sep 17, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBDET @ CHW | CHW ML −115 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −115 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −4.26% | +0.87u |
| Thu Sep 10, 7:05 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ NYY | C. Bellinger over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−150) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −150 to a fair close of −126 | Win | −7.18% | +0.67u |
| Thu Sep 10, 4:10 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTEX @ SEA | TEX ML +102 (original post, opens in a new tab) | +102 to a fair close of +108 | Loss | −2.88% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 10:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCIN @ LAD | T. Hernandez over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−121) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −121 to a fair close of −122 | Win | +0.36% | +0.83u |
| Wed Sep 9, 7:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ NYY | B. Rice over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−180) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −180 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 6:36 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCLE @ BAL | CLE ML −118 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | −3.65% | −1.00u |
| Wed Sep 9, 4:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBWSH @ SD | SD ML −183 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −183 to a fair close of −179 | Win | −0.82% | +0.55u |
| Wed Sep 9, 3:46 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSTL @ SF | STL ML −120 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −109 | Loss | −4.18% | −1.00u |
| Tue Sep 8, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | MLBARI @ KC | S. Perez over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−126) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −126 to a fair close of −107 | Loss | −7.15% | −1.00u |
| Mon Sep 7, 10:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTOR @ ATH | TOR F5 ML −190 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −190 to a fair close of −179 | Loss | −2.13% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ SEA | J. McNeil over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +127 | Loss | −7.33% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ SEA | Z. Gelof over 0.5 hits (−165) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −165 to a fair close of −146 | Win | −4.76% | +0.61u |
| Sat Sep 5, 9:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBATH @ SEA | Z. Gelof over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+131) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +131 to a fair close of +148 | Win | −6.89% | +1.31u |
| Sat Sep 5, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBTOR @ KC | B. Bateman over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−140) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −140 to a fair close of −124 | Loss | −5.00% | −1.00u |
| Sat Sep 5, 7:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBOS @ BAL | R. Anthony over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−144) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −144 to a fair close of −126 | Loss | −5.41% | −1.00u |
| Sat Aug 29, 2:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBPIT @ STL | J. Walker over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −6.31% | −1.00u |
| Sat Aug 29, 2:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCHW @ MIN | CHW/MIN Over 9 (−114) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −114 to a fair close of −103 | Loss | −4.79% | −1.00u |
| Thu Aug 27, 7:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBMIL @ NYM | MIL F5 ML −212 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −212 to a fair close of −197 | Win | −2.30% | +0.47u |
| Thu Aug 27, 7:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBHOU @ NYY | NYY F5 ML −175 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −175 to a fair close of −156 | Loss | −4.34% | −1.00u |
| Thu Aug 27, 2:16 PM ETReconstructed | MLBBAL @ STL | P. Alonso over 1.5 H+R+RBI (−144) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −144 to a fair close of −127 | Loss | −5.14% | −1.00u |
| Thu Aug 27, 1:06 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ WSH | COL/WSH Over 9 (−153) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −153 to a fair close of −141 | Loss | −3.14% | −1.00u |
| Wed Jul 29, 7:41 PM ETReconstructed | MLBNYY @ CHW | NYY F5 ML −162 (original post, opens in a new tab) | −162 to a fair close of −147 | Win | −3.83% | +0.62u |
| Wed Jul 29, 4:11 PM ETReconstructed | MLBCOL @ SD | COL TT Over 3.5 (−118) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −118 to a fair close of +100 | Loss | −7.63% | −1.00u |
| Sun Jun 14, 1:36 PM ETReconstructed | MLBSD @ BAL | P. Alonso over 0.5 HR (+265) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +265 to a fair close of +358 | Loss | −20.36% | −1.00u |
| Wed Apr 29, 7:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBATOR @ CLE | D. Mitchell over 26.5 pts (−139) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −139 to a fair close of −119 | Loss | −6.63% | −1.00u |
| Tue Apr 28, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPOR @ SA | D. Vassell over 19.5 PRA (+110) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +110 to a fair close of +112 | Loss | −1.13% | −1.00u |
| Tue Apr 28, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPOR @ SA | K. Johnson over 0.5 ast (−150) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −150 to a fair close of −133 | Win | −4.98% | +0.67u |
| Tue Apr 28, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPOR @ SA | L. Kornet over 4.5 reb (−102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −102 | Loss | n/a | −1.00u |
| Tue Apr 28, 8:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAATL @ NY | D. Daniels over 11.5 R+A (−140) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −140 to a fair close of −117 | Loss | −7.57% | −1.00u |
| Tue Apr 28, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPHI @ BOS | P. George over 14.5 pts (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −105 | Win | −7.69% | +0.80u |
| Tue Apr 28, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBAPHI @ BOS | J. Tatum over 6.5 ast (−145) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −145 to a fair close of −111 | Loss | −11.02% | −1.00u |
| Mon Apr 27, 10:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAMIN @ DEN | J. Murray over 32.5 P+R (−120) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −120 to a fair close of −105 | Loss | −6.28% | −1.00u |
| Mon Apr 27, 10:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBAMIN @ DEN | J. McDaniels over 7.5 R+A (−128) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −128 to a fair close of −113 | Loss | −5.56% | −1.00u |
| Sun Apr 26, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBALAL @ HOU | A. Thompson over 22.5 P+A (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −158 | Win | +10.10% | +0.80u |
| Sun Apr 26, 9:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBALAL @ HOU | J. Smith over 14.5 pts (−150) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −150 to a fair close of −202 | Win | +11.51% | +0.67u |
| Sun Apr 26, 7:10 PM ETReconstructed | NBABOS @ PHI | J. Tatum over 6.5 ast (+106) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +106 to a fair close of +117 | Win | −5.04% | +1.06u |
| Sun Apr 26, 3:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ POR | K. Johnson over 0.5 3PM (−156) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −156 to a fair close of −134 | Win | −5.89% | +0.64u |
| Sun Apr 26, 3:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ POR | S. Henderson over 2.5 3PM (+155) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +155 to a fair close of +163 | Loss | −3.14% | −1.00u |
| Sun Apr 26, 3:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ POR | J. Holiday over 27.5 PRA (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −5.96% | +0.80u |
| Sun Apr 26, 3:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ POR | S. Castle over 23.5 P+A (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −118 | Win | −2.50% | +0.80u |
| Sun Apr 26, 3:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBASA @ POR | S. Castle over 12.5 R+A (+102) (original post, opens in a new tab) | +102 to a fair close of +107 | Loss | −2.40% | −1.00u |
| Sat Apr 25, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBADEN @ MIN | A. Dosunmu over 11.5 pts (−125) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −125 to a fair close of −109 | Win | −6.04% | +0.80u |
| Sat Apr 25, 8:40 PM ETReconstructed | NBADEN @ MIN | A. Gordon over 7.5 R+A (−140) (original post, opens in a new tab) | −140 to a fair close of +114 | Loss | −20.04% | −1.00u |
All 307 graded picks are reconstructed from public posts; none were tracked live yet. Only bets whose game has started are listed. See the methodology.